Similar Bullish Pattern to 2017

The pattern formed in early 2017 looks extremely similar to what is currently forming on the chart. Combined with an accommodating Fed (Sept 18-19), China factory progress / launch this month, potential positive news on deliveries early October, and unveiling of the pickup truck in November should drive shares higher. Additionally, any positive news on trade and earnings would be another catalyst.

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Looks like Tesla stock has behaved similarly to the historical pattern. Post Q3 earnings surprise, shares surged ~30% to $340 and now are in normal fib retracement of 38.2% back in the $305-$315 range. Given the imminent start of Shanghai Gig Factory production, pickup truck unveil and Q4 typically being the best quarter for automakers, I expect the shares to see strong support in this range and make its way towards $360 by December and potential breakout above $400 pending Q4 deliveries / earnings in January 2020.

China is by far the largest auto market and with the Shanghai factory, Tesla will be able to achieve much higher margins (won't incur tariffs and high logistics costs) and faster deliveries (accelerated sales growth and market penetration). Additionally, Model Y is ahead of schedule which opens up the largest segment of the auto market to Tesla by summer 2020.

Bears are still holding on based upon sentiment in the media and analysts still mostly bearish, which will provide further upside for the stock.

2020 should be an exciting year for Tesla longs.