Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine
업데이트됨
I don't normally pay much attention to Tesla, but when I was eating cake and looking at charts today, I noticed something significant about this stock, and that's on the monthly:
Specifically, despite all these months of severe market correction, Tesla has never broken a monthly pivot on the way down from the top.
So much so that neither did the June market-wide bottom make a new low for TSLA, which turned May into a pivot.
This means TSLA has maintained its bullish market structure compared to its peers, and should be able to swing upwards and set new highs.
And yet on shorter time frames, even as large as the weekly, Tesla is simply heavy.
On the daily, TSLA looks about as weak as the indexes.
Not convinced? Well, compare this against McDonald's, of all things, which actually trades like a monster:
Now ask yourself what Big Tech's stuff is really worth in reality compared to its hype train.
Did Elon dump all those shares just so he could deal with the problem he created for himself trying to buy Twitter?
Key price action in Tesla tells you some really significant things:
1. Tesla is supposed to be in a bullish market structure, heading for new highs on the monthly.
2. Heavy on all other time frames
3. Hourly, it double topped and died at $314 with a May pivot above at only $318 during the climax of our recent bear market rally.
4. The split did nothing to stimulate its vitality.
And this is one of the top five highest volume stocks that trade each day and a key component of indexes.
This makes Tesla a literal canary in the coalmine for the rest of the market.
All of this combined can only show that new lows will be sought, and likely aggressively, which makes TSLA one of the fattest short opportunities around.
Keep in mind this is not the same Tesla that everyone was shorting in 2017, where Elon would go and buy 10% of the float one night and liquidate everyone while laughing about it on Twitter.
Tesla has become like a large, well developed cow sitting at the feed lot, waiting for whales to feast.
Personally, I think we're about to see some significant price action this week that will hurt both bulls and bears:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
And I think during this action, even if the indexes print some pretty fat blue candles, TSLA somehow, will still be heavy enough that it can't take out $318, which means your primetime entry is in the $300 - $310 range.
Give yourself a 3 to 6 month window where you can handle some bounce and won't get liquidated, and being short on TSLA should really turn out very nicely.
You shouldn't have faith in electric vehicles. They're heavy, don't last very long, are neither cheap nor easy to charge, put significant strain on the power grid, and require tons of environmentally-damaging-to-mine rare Earth substances that aren't abundant enough to supply demand.
This technological path cannot sustain itself. Mankind simply relies on burning oil and natural gas to produce electricity. Without electricity, modern society is finished.
Don't believe it? Try making it through one day of winter in a city without your furnace! Just look at how many people died during that winter storm in Texas when the grid went offline.
Mankind will have to find or rediscover a more traditional energy source if it wants to be sustainable for the thousands of years to come, and those discoveries will not come through this current batch of technology.
Specifically, despite all these months of severe market correction, Tesla has never broken a monthly pivot on the way down from the top.
So much so that neither did the June market-wide bottom make a new low for TSLA, which turned May into a pivot.
This means TSLA has maintained its bullish market structure compared to its peers, and should be able to swing upwards and set new highs.
And yet on shorter time frames, even as large as the weekly, Tesla is simply heavy.
On the daily, TSLA looks about as weak as the indexes.
Not convinced? Well, compare this against McDonald's, of all things, which actually trades like a monster:
Now ask yourself what Big Tech's stuff is really worth in reality compared to its hype train.
Did Elon dump all those shares just so he could deal with the problem he created for himself trying to buy Twitter?
Key price action in Tesla tells you some really significant things:
1. Tesla is supposed to be in a bullish market structure, heading for new highs on the monthly.
2. Heavy on all other time frames
3. Hourly, it double topped and died at $314 with a May pivot above at only $318 during the climax of our recent bear market rally.
4. The split did nothing to stimulate its vitality.
And this is one of the top five highest volume stocks that trade each day and a key component of indexes.
This makes Tesla a literal canary in the coalmine for the rest of the market.
All of this combined can only show that new lows will be sought, and likely aggressively, which makes TSLA one of the fattest short opportunities around.
Keep in mind this is not the same Tesla that everyone was shorting in 2017, where Elon would go and buy 10% of the float one night and liquidate everyone while laughing about it on Twitter.
Tesla has become like a large, well developed cow sitting at the feed lot, waiting for whales to feast.
Personally, I think we're about to see some significant price action this week that will hurt both bulls and bears:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
And I think during this action, even if the indexes print some pretty fat blue candles, TSLA somehow, will still be heavy enough that it can't take out $318, which means your primetime entry is in the $300 - $310 range.
Give yourself a 3 to 6 month window where you can handle some bounce and won't get liquidated, and being short on TSLA should really turn out very nicely.
You shouldn't have faith in electric vehicles. They're heavy, don't last very long, are neither cheap nor easy to charge, put significant strain on the power grid, and require tons of environmentally-damaging-to-mine rare Earth substances that aren't abundant enough to supply demand.
This technological path cannot sustain itself. Mankind simply relies on burning oil and natural gas to produce electricity. Without electricity, modern society is finished.
Don't believe it? Try making it through one day of winter in a city without your furnace! Just look at how many people died during that winter storm in Texas when the grid went offline.
Mankind will have to find or rediscover a more traditional energy source if it wants to be sustainable for the thousands of years to come, and those discoveries will not come through this current batch of technology.
노트
Note the dump in the right place and the right time, but while everything is melting down, TSLA has not refilled the gap.Yet.
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