Cycle Heatmap

2023년 12월 25일

Gm, the cycle heatmap says we are still early.

This idea is purely based on the 4 year boom and bust cycle theory.
We expect btc to bottom about 1 year before the halving and top at least 6 months but probably 9-18 months after the halving. So I adapt this theory to the total market cap and estimate a conservative 50% btc dominance to get an idea of the total crypto market cap targets of this new cycle.
We can also combine different cycle based models to create a heatmap.

- 140k BTC target as minimum conservative target
- 10x total target
- 1M BTC target
- trololol log regression aasasoft.org/investing/models/trololo.html
- log log price chart price.bublina.eu.org/loglog
- stock to flow lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
- halving en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

This allows us to track where we are in the big picture and identify mean reversion risks.

#dubious #speculation

2023년 12월 25일

노트

zoomed in

2024년 1월 20일

노트

Dip into the green area. If we believe in the cycle theory and that altcoins will move together with BTC, dips into this region could be a good long term entry. The lower it goes, the lower the risk of entering buy and hold positions.

2024년 1월 23일

노트

total market cap now deep in green region, means total cap is around the price it should be for btc 140k end of cycle target

2024년 4월 13일

노트

dipped into the green region today where risk might be pretty low to enter spot positions.

8월 24일

액티브 트레이드

This cycle may come to an end within the next months, total valuation is still low though. ETHUSD just broke ath and there is a transition from BTC to ETH going on. Altcoins usually have their best time in the last phase of the cycle which seems to start now.
The process usually is: BTC flows into ETH, ETH flows into majors, majors flow into mid and small caps.

There is no guarantee that the cycle theory keeps repeating the same way as before though.