Want to play the fool's game and pick a bottom in oil, just pick the top in TLT, which is not so foollish. TLT has a little room to run to top trend line resistance, GDX already heading up (see 2008 pin action - it's a bowling term for those of you who have never bowled) , and what does the magician get you to look at while the other hand is doing the trick? How about instead of a full blown, media circus Euro QE, just cutting a deal with the Saudis (eh Germany?) and stablizing oil, so it does act as a tax break, instead of continuing to stoke the flames of deflation (since Germany wants austerity, but because it would be politically incorrect- they can disguise it this way and still get what they want, no QE). Isn't that everyone's worry, and goal to increase inflation. Well short term, it may be good, but be careful what you ask for, because when you play with fire you get burned. We shouldn't be manipulating the markets this way in the first place, and hyper inflation may result. This consipracy is just talk, but the chart is real.