4 things can happen:
1) Trade deal is signed, everybody's happy, market goes back to ATHs. Least likely scenario IMO.
2) No deal, no future talks scheduled. Talks fall apart and tariffs go to 25% along w/ new tariffs. Not as unlikely but still pretty unlikely...
3) Some manifestation of a deal is made using ambiguous terms like "agreement in principle" to be ratified at a later date. Tariffs stay at 10%. Possible IMO... current support holds and runs steadily back to the ATH before some future disagreement inevitably comes to light.
2) No deal is made, but "significant progress" is made (I'll eat my hat if I don't see those 2 words in the headlines by the weekend) so tariff increases get put on hold as a gesture of good will. Most likely outcome IMO as both sides have learned the art of kicking the can down the road (should be Trump's next book...) Market will chop sideways around the 50DMA (See June 2018 low) before eventually moving back up.
Until the market breaks below the winter triple top levels of 280, I see all dips as an opportunity to load up for a melt-up going into the June quad-witch opex. Do grab some puts though if you're long and watch the daily MFI and hourly RSI.
1) Trade deal is signed, everybody's happy, market goes back to ATHs. Least likely scenario IMO.
2) No deal, no future talks scheduled. Talks fall apart and tariffs go to 25% along w/ new tariffs. Not as unlikely but still pretty unlikely...
3) Some manifestation of a deal is made using ambiguous terms like "agreement in principle" to be ratified at a later date. Tariffs stay at 10%. Possible IMO... current support holds and runs steadily back to the ATH before some future disagreement inevitably comes to light.
2) No deal is made, but "significant progress" is made (I'll eat my hat if I don't see those 2 words in the headlines by the weekend) so tariff increases get put on hold as a gesture of good will. Most likely outcome IMO as both sides have learned the art of kicking the can down the road (should be Trump's next book...) Market will chop sideways around the 50DMA (See June 2018 low) before eventually moving back up.
Until the market breaks below the winter triple top levels of 280, I see all dips as an opportunity to load up for a melt-up going into the June quad-witch opex. Do grab some puts though if you're long and watch the daily MFI and hourly RSI.
코멘트:
As expected, deal or no deal the triple top @ 280 caught the S&P... Looks like it's headed back up to 286 @ the 50DMA which is exactly where a .382 retrace of the correction is... I'd take some profits there if you BTD, or consider scaling into some short positions. Very likely we get a retest or another leg down.