- Copper inventories are at 10 years high (negatively correlated to prices during market bottoms and not tops)
- Indexes are potentially in top forming process if they hold prices under ATH
- Metals market might have a last leg down during summer, at least to create potential bottom before rebound, metals had, for the most part of the week, the right frame to go higher, but yet it didn't do so, thus returning to bearish territory
- Basic metals did not participate to bull market since late 2011 early 2012
- Copper prices has been underperforming the base metals market for the most part of the year
My analysis suggests that copper prices should retest the 2-85$ - 3$ barrier acting like support and psychological frame (under 3$ is bear market territory for stocks, coincidentally 50% fibo retracement) before considering higher prices. This is synchronized with an overall stock market correction and metals supposition of a last leg down during summer.
That is my first scenario for now. The second known unknown will depend on ability for prices to stay over this level and overall market activity on indexes and China. It will still be down to china to support copper prices.
My guts always tells weak gets weaker and basic materials not following rallies is not good at all. Consequently, my short term analysis is bearish, i would rather stay away before considering going long, at least before testing strong support.
- Indexes are potentially in top forming process if they hold prices under ATH
- Metals market might have a last leg down during summer, at least to create potential bottom before rebound, metals had, for the most part of the week, the right frame to go higher, but yet it didn't do so, thus returning to bearish territory
- Basic metals did not participate to bull market since late 2011 early 2012
- Copper prices has been underperforming the base metals market for the most part of the year
My analysis suggests that copper prices should retest the 2-85$ - 3$ barrier acting like support and psychological frame (under 3$ is bear market territory for stocks, coincidentally 50% fibo retracement) before considering higher prices. This is synchronized with an overall stock market correction and metals supposition of a last leg down during summer.
That is my first scenario for now. The second known unknown will depend on ability for prices to stay over this level and overall market activity on indexes and China. It will still be down to china to support copper prices.
My guts always tells weak gets weaker and basic materials not following rallies is not good at all. Consequently, my short term analysis is bearish, i would rather stay away before considering going long, at least before testing strong support.