Based on the seemingly neverending optimistic narratives in the MSM, you'd think the economy is a rocket ship, heading for the promise land, where every family in the US is going to be taken care of by the government, and Fed, who have no agenda other than to do everything in their power to help you. Your thinking about the stock market, and with jobless claims coming in this morning at 712k vs 725k expected, along with over 4M continuing claims still plaguing the labour market, we're not quite seeing the recovery we're reading about on main street. In fact, at over 700k initial claims, we're running at over 4 times the pre-covid levels, and in actuality, the total number of Americans on some form of income benefits is still over 20 Million. I guarantee you won't hear that fact discussed in the MSM. Mean while, Wall Street has never been happier, and more successful than they have been over the past year. The US added 50 new billionaires in a year, and the top wealthiest saw their wealth increase by over 30%. Anyone on main street see their wealth increase over 30%, other than the gamblers diving head first into risk? I didn't think so.
The 10Y Treasury saw a strong auction yesterday, but the headline imo is the fact that we saw a yield of 1.52%, vs the prior yield of 1.15%. Rates are still rising rapidly folks, and the CTA's clearly didn't cover as many analysts expected. From a technical standpoint, we're looking at downside in the yield to 1.41% (21 day EMA), and then the 1.31% level, which is the 100MA (w). With 2% just above us and calling for a test, it won't be long until the 10Y is over 2% and the majors are down 20%. This is not even a dramatic projection, but the base case according to Morgan Stanley.
The Dollar (DXY) saw a strong rejection at our target, around 92.50, and after selling off toward the 91.60 level this morning, looks poised to rally hard back toward the recent highs. In volatility, we looking at a relentless sell off since the March 4th high of 31.9 on the Vix. But, we appear to be finding support around the March 3rd low, at a 22 handle.
In metals, both Gold and Silver are catching a strong bid, potentially off the back of the stimulus proposal decimating the dollar's purchasing power further. We're also seeing Platinum, Copper, and Palladium rally as well. In oil, WTI is back at a 65 handle after some brief turbulence, and we remain on track to see a 70 handle before long. If not, perhaps we'll hear news about another "hit" to supply, forcing the price increase. You know the game.
On the majors, we're seeing the type of price action that makes most traders feel sick. The gap ups are back, and look a lot like November 2020, when we saw M1 blow up by the largest magnitude in history. The Green ascending channel on SPY has been broken while we all slept, (those fuckers), and we're looking at a possible test of the top of the recent wedge formation around 393, before a possible continuation of the downtrend. This move would put us within a couple points of the ATH, which is nuts. Fibonacci would be rolling over in his grave at these Frankenstein retracements.
Thanks for your time today guys and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at Hedge of the World for our live analysis which begins at 9:30AM. FYI we're offering 30% off our monthly membership, today only.
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
The 10Y Treasury saw a strong auction yesterday, but the headline imo is the fact that we saw a yield of 1.52%, vs the prior yield of 1.15%. Rates are still rising rapidly folks, and the CTA's clearly didn't cover as many analysts expected. From a technical standpoint, we're looking at downside in the yield to 1.41% (21 day EMA), and then the 1.31% level, which is the 100MA (w). With 2% just above us and calling for a test, it won't be long until the 10Y is over 2% and the majors are down 20%. This is not even a dramatic projection, but the base case according to Morgan Stanley.
The Dollar (DXY) saw a strong rejection at our target, around 92.50, and after selling off toward the 91.60 level this morning, looks poised to rally hard back toward the recent highs. In volatility, we looking at a relentless sell off since the March 4th high of 31.9 on the Vix. But, we appear to be finding support around the March 3rd low, at a 22 handle.
In metals, both Gold and Silver are catching a strong bid, potentially off the back of the stimulus proposal decimating the dollar's purchasing power further. We're also seeing Platinum, Copper, and Palladium rally as well. In oil, WTI is back at a 65 handle after some brief turbulence, and we remain on track to see a 70 handle before long. If not, perhaps we'll hear news about another "hit" to supply, forcing the price increase. You know the game.
On the majors, we're seeing the type of price action that makes most traders feel sick. The gap ups are back, and look a lot like November 2020, when we saw M1 blow up by the largest magnitude in history. The Green ascending channel on SPY has been broken while we all slept, (those fuckers), and we're looking at a possible test of the top of the recent wedge formation around 393, before a possible continuation of the downtrend. This move would put us within a couple points of the ATH, which is nuts. Fibonacci would be rolling over in his grave at these Frankenstein retracements.
Thanks for your time today guys and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at Hedge of the World for our live analysis which begins at 9:30AM. FYI we're offering 30% off our monthly membership, today only.
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
