Regardless of the continually uncertain macro backdrop, the US stock market $SPY remains in a well defined technical uptrend, shown by continual higher highs and higher lows. The current chart pattern shows an ascending triangle with a break out above $SPX 3700 would indicate further confirmation of the uptrend. Volatility has been coiling the last several weeks so we could see a break out this week.
Seasonally this is one the strongest periods of the calendar year and with the current YTD momentum tailwind this would typically result in a "Santa Claus" rally going into the new year most of the time. All other major leading indices $QQQ $DIA and $IWM show similar patterns with strong breath across the market. Only some significant un-expected negative news could derail this rally, otherwise the risks remain to the upside, with a possible melt-up we could see $SPX 4000 by the new year, until then we'll be adding more longs on all pullbacks.
Seasonally this is one the strongest periods of the calendar year and with the current YTD momentum tailwind this would typically result in a "Santa Claus" rally going into the new year most of the time. All other major leading indices $QQQ $DIA and $IWM show similar patterns with strong breath across the market. Only some significant un-expected negative news could derail this rally, otherwise the risks remain to the upside, with a possible melt-up we could see $SPX 4000 by the new year, until then we'll be adding more longs on all pullbacks.