SPY - 30Min View - Moving Average Prediction for Downturn
Using the 10WeekMA for SPY we can see selloff's occur the last 3 times when price was within $8.60 or less of the moving average (red zigzag).
We are currently less than $8.60 from the moving average - but no selloff.
If we use the normal moving average on 64bars, and ignore the double jump up, by 12/13 price is closer than last selloff.
Last selloff price was $6.70 from moving average, so this would imply we selloff or breakout of the yellow wedge (highly unlikely).
If we breakout to the upside of the wedge, it is possible for the lag to continue for the selloff.
But based on the current wedge being bearish, price being within range of MA for selloff, and 2 fakedowns....we are ready.
Note - If we use the 10WeekMA that is acclerated, we will cross sooner. The gray boxes are almost cut in half. I took the longest expectation here to avoid disappointment.
Exits
-After I post an update when selloff starts (best outcome)
-White top of wedge if FOMO takes us even further into unrealistic outer space
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY.
Short SPY, AAPL
We are currently less than $8.60 from the moving average - but no selloff.
If we use the normal moving average on 64bars, and ignore the double jump up, by 12/13 price is closer than last selloff.
Last selloff price was $6.70 from moving average, so this would imply we selloff or breakout of the yellow wedge (highly unlikely).
If we breakout to the upside of the wedge, it is possible for the lag to continue for the selloff.
But based on the current wedge being bearish, price being within range of MA for selloff, and 2 fakedowns....we are ready.
Note - If we use the 10WeekMA that is acclerated, we will cross sooner. The gray boxes are almost cut in half. I took the longest expectation here to avoid disappointment.
Exits
-After I post an update when selloff starts (best outcome)
-White top of wedge if FOMO takes us even further into unrealistic outer space
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY.
Short SPY, AAPL