Still considering that this leg down is merely Wave 2. Channel and Fib work shows that we might drop down as low as 3,400 but the wave count conviction remains. My key motivator for this count is the long term action of price against the 40 month moving average.
I have long believed that a major washout in the markets would occur. Way too much debt and the game has gone on far too long. It will come to an end. In looking at the very long term, perhaps with the Great Depression being the first long term Wave 2 in the Super Cycle, it appears that we might be in the final Wave 5 of the great cycle. So it plays well into my scenario. How will it end? Your guess is as good as mine. But if you figure that we have been in a bull market since the beginning of the 1900s to present, A major Super Cycle correction will unveil dramatic changes, especially in the paper money markets. It's clear that many countries are signing up for a commodity-based money system while another segment is pushing for blockchain. What seems very clear is the correlation between to availability of energy over the decades, the growth of the population and the quality of life. With a segment of the world pushing for the elimination of fossil fuels, seems clear to me that a large segment of the world's population will disappear due to starvation, lack of medicines and poor sanitation, etc. In addition to the other societal trends that have resulted in the reduction of population growth, how much longer will the Capitalist system endure?
Fortunately for me, being in my late 60s, I foresee this next wave three lasting possibly for my remaining years. Don't think I will be around to see the demise of the system.
Current strategy, building up portfolios in various tax-bucket accounts for efficient tax-planning in retirement. Physical gold and silver a mainstay over the years, diversified portfolios with buy-writes in major corporations with decent dividends. Iron Condor volatility spreads on the indicies. Also have been adding TLT but with short options against. Don't know how this will play out but while capital has been declining on this one, dividends and option writes have been providing a good revenue source.
Comments welcome. Anyone else looking at Wave Theory here?
I have long believed that a major washout in the markets would occur. Way too much debt and the game has gone on far too long. It will come to an end. In looking at the very long term, perhaps with the Great Depression being the first long term Wave 2 in the Super Cycle, it appears that we might be in the final Wave 5 of the great cycle. So it plays well into my scenario. How will it end? Your guess is as good as mine. But if you figure that we have been in a bull market since the beginning of the 1900s to present, A major Super Cycle correction will unveil dramatic changes, especially in the paper money markets. It's clear that many countries are signing up for a commodity-based money system while another segment is pushing for blockchain. What seems very clear is the correlation between to availability of energy over the decades, the growth of the population and the quality of life. With a segment of the world pushing for the elimination of fossil fuels, seems clear to me that a large segment of the world's population will disappear due to starvation, lack of medicines and poor sanitation, etc. In addition to the other societal trends that have resulted in the reduction of population growth, how much longer will the Capitalist system endure?
Fortunately for me, being in my late 60s, I foresee this next wave three lasting possibly for my remaining years. Don't think I will be around to see the demise of the system.
Current strategy, building up portfolios in various tax-bucket accounts for efficient tax-planning in retirement. Physical gold and silver a mainstay over the years, diversified portfolios with buy-writes in major corporations with decent dividends. Iron Condor volatility spreads on the indicies. Also have been adding TLT but with short options against. Don't know how this will play out but while capital has been declining on this one, dividends and option writes have been providing a good revenue source.
Comments welcome. Anyone else looking at Wave Theory here?
코멘트:
Note especially how waves 2 and 4 barely break the 40 month moving average while ABC formations show a stronger correction below the 40 month ma.