PSA: Caution rogue robots

2021년 1월 30일

This is a PSA. If you are or are not aware of what is currently going on in the market firms are being held hostage in the gme standoff. To meet the obligationsof the contracts they were selling naked (calls) firms are liquidating long positions broadly. Looking at the Cebu skew it is currently at one of the highest levels it can possibly be meaning that there is a 10 to 12% chance of an outlier move of roughly two to three sigma. you can see that very apparently on the SPX options chain as most of the downside weight is out of the money roughly two standard deviations. The vix is currently in backwardation with spot vix above the futures months. These conditions are similar to what we have seen during the corona crash. However we have yet to see if the market can regain price ranges. Currently realized volatility is exceeding implied volatility meaning the market is not efficient. So once again caution rogue robots