SPX pull back UPDATE 4: "to B or not to B"? that is the question

Part of my ongoing analysis of the SP500 index and the virus crash.

As you know, we got small bounce on Friday, EXACTLY from a mapped Fib zone.
The small bounce was followed up on Monday with a historic bounce in all stocks.
Now going into New York open on Tuesday, we are at a crucial decision point.

Was the bounce just a notorious "Wave B = Bull Trap" ?
Or did we already paint an ABC in the waterfall to hell?
Today will be the pivotal date for global stock markets.

On one hand, the vigorous bounce "should" have painted the bottom.
On the other hand, it seems "too easy", everyone making profit at once?
On the other other hand, the whole virus situation may now be priced in?

In my opinion:
It is LIKELY that we have painted "the" bottom or "very close".
It is PLAUSIBLE that we see a stop hunt with an new low.
It is POSSIBLE that we are just barely starting a bear market.

3100 is clear Resistance, visible to the naked eye from a distance.
3062-3078 is a fib Cluster that is like tar, slow and hard to move through.
2883-2987 is Key support that bulls most hold of face lower lows.


.

Previous Analysis:
Jan 16, 2019: Call for Top or Near Top
Jan 27, 2019: Initial plot of Virus effect
Jan 29, 2019: Virus effect a-b-c plot
Feb 24, 2019: Initial plot bigger Dip
Feb 25, 2019: Dip update 1: Early Measures
Feb 26, 2019: Dip update 2: Wave B targets
Feb 28, 2019: Dip update 3: Friday Bounce

Hit LIKE to encourage these posts
Hit Follow on this IDEA to be notified of updates.
Hit Follow on ME to be notified of new Ideas.

.

코멘트:

Surprise FED rate cut.

"Emergency" rate cut of ** 50bps ** outside of normal meeting time. Caused an uncertain spike in the markets

Now the market has to ponder and digest:
- more Free Money coming with low rates, hoorah, buy stocks.
- does FED know something worse than we do? panic, sell stocks.

Overall this will be POSITIVE for stocks.
But it may take some days to DIGEST first.

코멘트:

( ( Ping ) )

Just hit the "Bounce at Risk" zone

time of this post is 2 hours before stock market open.
NY session absolute critical today.

last Friday it stopped the bleeding and lead to a bounce on Monday.
this Friday could be the same,
OR bad day with more selling,
which might set off panic selling.

=======================================================================================

코멘트:

Approaching CRITICAL support

Originally mapped green zone, now reinforced by the 9.618 of last leg down

This really needs to at least stop here today (Friday).
Ideally we get a Ping on 2890 and a small bounce.
Break of that zone now would be a bad sign.
The 9.618 really OUGHT to bounce the price.
Especially when backed by higher tf fibs.

=======================================================================================

코멘트:

Another Friday Bounce!

Just like last week, we got another bounce going into close of Friday session

BUT I think that is about it for this week,
maybe one more push to the 4.618 in last few minutes,
but this bounce is probably about done for today.

==============================================================================================

코멘트:

Impressive Bounce!

We got that one last push going into close,

past the 4.618 for an almost 3% bounce.
That is too big of a bounce to be just shorts covering.
Bargain hunters were buying as well to make such a move.


So now we see what develops over the weekend...

==============================================================================================