SPXU - bears are in control after CPI release

2022년 9월 13일

SPXU - bears are in control after CPI release

Shorting the US market is not an easy business, but this is the trend since the beginning of 2022 and there is no sign of it changing.

In addition to my previous post...

On Friday I have been stopped out from both SPXU and SQQQ, locking in roughly 1,5% and 2% profit accordingly. I have also been stoped out from UVXY, realising around 0,55% loss in absolute terms.

Yesterday I have decided to reopen my position in all of the three above mentioned instruments at better price, with increased volume and same risk. So far it proved to be a good idea, but we are far from evaluating it.

Inflation is not cooling, volatility is... well you see it.

Today's CPI number made the futures market to reprice the yield curve. 4,25-4,50% is the new most probable FED target rate...

There is no secret, based on my research and opinion I don't think fundamentally things have changed. Are they getting worse? Did macro environment changed in favour of risk-on bulls?

I honestly don't want to see capitulation, severe depression, strong increase in unemployment, world war 3 - you name it... but as you have noticed I have changed my view and will stick with bears for now.

Trend is your friend.

You may find how I see the technical picture on weekly timeframe.

My base case scenario as per now is that SPX500 is heading towards 3400 price level.

More than 100% upside potential in SPXU?

I wish it would be a straight road, but I strongly doubt it...

2023년 5월 31일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

BEARS have been wrecked, including myself. Luckily I stopped shorting the market in March... What to do now? Shorting again? I will try again. Liquidity is going to get squeezed.