A breakout above the red line is possible but it would require an important technical breakout which is unlikely.
The current market dynamics is similar to Oct07 or April10: wave V of an extended rally calling for a 20% correction.
In both Oct07 and April10, it took 10 weeks to complete the rally and it climbed 15%. The regime was rather slow.
In both cases, the preceding top to top speed was rather high, which enabled the market to climb higher without breaching any key resistance.
Here it is a little bit different:
The preceding speed line is rather slow, giving at least the impression of imminent resistance.
Unlike 2007 or 2010, the speed was very high almost without retracement within.
We are only at week 4 and 12%... a repeat of apr10 or oct07 would add another 3pct over 6 weeks (2090/year end, a bit easy in the Santa Claus expectation no?).
