Major Macroeconomic Data Delayed Due to the US govt Shutdown

The recent shutdown of the U.S. government has triggered a domino effect on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. Due to the temporary closure of several federal agencies — notably the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — a series of crucial statistics have been delayed, making it more difficult to assess the real-time economic situation of the United States.

A Severely Disrupted Economic Calendar

From early October, several major releases were postponed. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for October 3 was the first casualty and the CPI and PPI inflation indicators on October 15 and 16.

These consecutive delays have disoriented financial markets, depriving them of the statistical benchmarks essential to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s decisions. As a result, visibility on inflation, employment, and consumption trends has been significantly reduced, fueling volatility in U.S. equity markets.

The Fed in the Dark

This disrupted schedule complicates the Fed’s task ahead of its October 29 monetary policy decision, followed by the PCE inflation release on October 31.
Without fresh data, FOMC members will have to rely on partial or outdated information to decide on the path of interest rates. This lack of reliable data could lead the institution to adopt a more cautious stance, postponing any major adjustment to its monetary policy.


Cascading Effects in the Coming Months — Unless the Shutdown Ends in October

The November 7 NFP report and Supreme Court hearings on tariff policies, scheduled for the same week, may also be affected if the shutdown continues. Similarly, November inflation data (CPI, PPI, and PCE) could face further delays, undermining the accuracy of economic forecasts for year-end.

Finally, the December releases — notably the December 5 NFP report and the December 10 Fed meeting — could mark a return to calendar normality, provided the affected agencies manage to catch up on lost time.

In short, the sooner this shutdown episode ends, the faster the overall publication of macroeconomic figures will return to normal.





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