Some of the prevailing logic amongst bears is as follows:
1. Bear markets don't resolve in six months
2. Bear markets don't resolve without a capitulation VIX spike
3. QT bro
Well regarding the last: i've shown in a previous idea that the market does pretty well without an expanding balance sheet, and we know that the velocity of QT is minimal
Regarding the first two points
MAYBE IT ISN'T A BEAR MARKET- just a 25% correction?
Post the dot com bust we got a 40% correction without a big vix spike (box)
Of course the BEAR did manifest in earnest that time
This time tho...
IS DIFFERENT?
GRI 2022
1. Bear markets don't resolve in six months
2. Bear markets don't resolve without a capitulation VIX spike
3. QT bro
Well regarding the last: i've shown in a previous idea that the market does pretty well without an expanding balance sheet, and we know that the velocity of QT is minimal
Regarding the first two points
MAYBE IT ISN'T A BEAR MARKET- just a 25% correction?
Post the dot com bust we got a 40% correction without a big vix spike (box)
Of course the BEAR did manifest in earnest that time
This time tho...
IS DIFFERENT?
GRI 2022
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Yield Curve Control
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