This is a historic timeline showing the following:
Visuals:
1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines)
2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines)
3. Recession (Grey box)
Charts:
1. Inflation CPI
2. FedFundsRate
3. Unemployment Rate
You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and 1980). In an inflationary environment, most likely the S&P bottoms when the inflation (CPI) has peaked. However, in 1980, the S&P went higher after mid-term elections despite inflation rising and having not peaked.
So the S&P can bottom anywhere from June to October (possibly at $3200- Fib lower level), then rally after mid-term elections. If post-mid-term election, the unemployment rate starts going up, it can lead to a recession in the upcoming years.
Feedback welcome!
References:
1. List of recessions: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
2. Mid-term elections: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
3. Stock Market post Mid-Term elections: usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html
Visuals:
1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines)
2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines)
3. Recession (Grey box)
Charts:
1. Inflation CPI
2. FedFundsRate
3. Unemployment Rate
You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and 1980). In an inflationary environment, most likely the S&P bottoms when the inflation (CPI) has peaked. However, in 1980, the S&P went higher after mid-term elections despite inflation rising and having not peaked.
So the S&P can bottom anywhere from June to October (possibly at $3200- Fib lower level), then rally after mid-term elections. If post-mid-term election, the unemployment rate starts going up, it can lead to a recession in the upcoming years.
Feedback welcome!
References:
1. List of recessions: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
2. Mid-term elections: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
3. Stock Market post Mid-Term elections: usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
