SPX broke over key level and established a new ATH after breaking out of a three years long widening wedge with a measured move to $6000.
Will it go to $6000? It does look possible. Take a look at crypto and you can see how extremely bullish the situation is with historically long green monthly candles. The amount of fresh liquidity from the FED is unstoppable and will fuel the rise of all securities. So much certain is the FED policy of sustained growth in stocks that traders took an astronomical amount of option calls never seen before in history. Which begs the question if the FED's job is just to hand over free money to stock and option holders.
Answer in my opinion is a NO. The market always does opposite to what majority thinks. Allowing another black swan event will not shake the economy as it is already shaken and the FEDs will step in again to prop it up like in March. You might think that the FEDs are personally invested in stocks and will not allow them to fall. There is an easy remedy to this, puts are conveniently cheap now and FEDs insiders can take them to hedge protect their positions or even make a lot of money since they know when the market will drop (when they turn off M1 money supply, like the test run they did on January 26th) and how deep it will go.
Now on the technical side, SPX price action dropped out of the 4 months long rising wedge and reached it's first support from where it bounced to new ATH retesting the rising wedge again for the second time. This pattern of twice retesting a rising wedge is appearing in a lot of charts lately and I will go out on limb to say that the SPX will repeat the pattern and drop. Below is an example of the pattern.
Now the possibility of the stock rally continuing is very real, fiscal retardation and the misappropriation of wealth by the very few can overcome any logic. We will react accordingly.
Will it go to $6000? It does look possible. Take a look at crypto and you can see how extremely bullish the situation is with historically long green monthly candles. The amount of fresh liquidity from the FED is unstoppable and will fuel the rise of all securities. So much certain is the FED policy of sustained growth in stocks that traders took an astronomical amount of option calls never seen before in history. Which begs the question if the FED's job is just to hand over free money to stock and option holders.
Answer in my opinion is a NO. The market always does opposite to what majority thinks. Allowing another black swan event will not shake the economy as it is already shaken and the FEDs will step in again to prop it up like in March. You might think that the FEDs are personally invested in stocks and will not allow them to fall. There is an easy remedy to this, puts are conveniently cheap now and FEDs insiders can take them to hedge protect their positions or even make a lot of money since they know when the market will drop (when they turn off M1 money supply, like the test run they did on January 26th) and how deep it will go.
Now on the technical side, SPX price action dropped out of the 4 months long rising wedge and reached it's first support from where it bounced to new ATH retesting the rising wedge again for the second time. This pattern of twice retesting a rising wedge is appearing in a lot of charts lately and I will go out on limb to say that the SPX will repeat the pattern and drop. Below is an example of the pattern.
Now the possibility of the stock rally continuing is very real, fiscal retardation and the misappropriation of wealth by the very few can overcome any logic. We will react accordingly.
코멘트:
peeling away from the wedge, crypto reacted today with a quick short dump
