[SPX] 28Y Rise and Fall Trend Extrapolation... Lots of Confirms!
업데이트됨
Wow guys, my brain is melting now but we have an amazing result!
Shout out to mikemillion for the three decade trend analysis idea :).
Here's the logic:
1. Draw strongest trend line for both rise and fall
2. Set second line at next strongest trend
3. Extrapolate
4. Voila!
Looks like we're in a massive bubble sparked by knowing a drastic cut in taxes for the wealthy and corporations were coming after the election of Trump with a Republican congress.
This led to massive inflows of money and unprecedented levels of stock buybacks (don't forget about that!) all to juice the stock price higher for corporate executive bonuses.
The day after it became clear that coronavirus was not going to be stopped, there was a massive outflow of wealth 3x higher than at any of the highest points in the past two decades. (See BarCharts TRIN 20 yr and look at the date of that spike)
Now we're in a massive downtrend only being held up by unprecedented levels of stimulus for the START of a downturn well before it has even fully set in yet and Retail irrational exuberance. The wealthy who were playing the dead cat bounce also just began exiting the market with their money en masse. The wealthy are just sitting back and waiting for Retail to eat shit now so they can get back in again at the bottom.
That purple line aligns well with the 1500-1600 bottom call made in a lot of predictions. The white line is probably the world possible case but I've seen two predictions for sub 1000 SPX and can confirm it's actually plausible.
Finally this also incidentally confirms my 3264 peak call from Friday's idea so that's cool.
Can't wait for next week to start guys... just can't wait B).
Shout out to mikemillion for the three decade trend analysis idea :).
Here's the logic:
1. Draw strongest trend line for both rise and fall
2. Set second line at next strongest trend
3. Extrapolate
4. Voila!
Looks like we're in a massive bubble sparked by knowing a drastic cut in taxes for the wealthy and corporations were coming after the election of Trump with a Republican congress.
This led to massive inflows of money and unprecedented levels of stock buybacks (don't forget about that!) all to juice the stock price higher for corporate executive bonuses.
The day after it became clear that coronavirus was not going to be stopped, there was a massive outflow of wealth 3x higher than at any of the highest points in the past two decades. (See BarCharts TRIN 20 yr and look at the date of that spike)
Now we're in a massive downtrend only being held up by unprecedented levels of stimulus for the START of a downturn well before it has even fully set in yet and Retail irrational exuberance. The wealthy who were playing the dead cat bounce also just began exiting the market with their money en masse. The wealthy are just sitting back and waiting for Retail to eat shit now so they can get back in again at the bottom.
That purple line aligns well with the 1500-1600 bottom call made in a lot of predictions. The white line is probably the world possible case but I've seen two predictions for sub 1000 SPX and can confirm it's actually plausible.
Finally this also incidentally confirms my 3264 peak call from Friday's idea so that's cool.
Can't wait for next week to start guys... just can't wait B).
노트
*38 year lol... math is hard.
Data analyst with a passion for best fit lines B)
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.