Down until Georgia senate election, then up if Democrats win.

2020년 12월 21일

Further stimulus in the USA is dependent on the senate. If democrats win people will frontrun a much larger stimulus package in march or early Q2 and push the markets higher. Should republicans win markets will be more uncertain.

Atm the markets are being run on stimulus, money printing and extremely low interest rates. Almost every business is credit worthy in that situation, and the bond market gives no valuable returns. Money is forced into the stock market. Should dems win the senate people will frontrun the idea that the FED will provide low interest rate loans to the blue states that need more money. That will force even more money out of the bond market and into the stock market. So stocks should go up.

There are very few trading days left until this is decided, and the covid-19 epidemic will lead to more shutdowns and more deaths still. It will also shut down trade between countries, and the economy for a few more months. That should give increased uncertainty until the senate is decided, so my guess is - down, then further up.

Please note tweezer tops as well, signaling trend turning down for a bit.

2021년 1월 11일

노트

Markets are too bullish. They refused to drop on uncertainty before the election, but at least the followthrough bullish pattern came to fruition.