We traded sideways a bit more than I expected but we now have a neckline break, but we haven’t seen weekly sell signal yet. Market still extremely expensive look at Market cap to gdp, or Shiller pe. It’s the second most expensive ever. Granted we haven’t had anywhere near this much stimulus and funny money, but it’s more likely that stocks fall based on how historically expensive they are.
We are starting to see consumer price increases like for example eggs went up 16% in April, M2 is up 20% yoy. As I forecasted stagflation for next several years we officially have 14.7% unemployment (in reality above 30%) going higher, real inflation above 10% and rising. Right now expect to see rising consumer prices inflation (at grocery store) but falling asset prices deflation (stocks, potentially bonds if bond bubble pops). Commodities are very cheap right now so expect them to skyrocket about halfway thru just like 08. Look at how cheap silver, oil and other commodities are. Gold is cheap to money supply, but in terms of silver, oil and other commodities gold is expensive. Once the short term commodity deflation ends, I expect Gold to go way up, but I also expect Silver, Oil, and other commodities to go up faster than Gold.
We are starting to see consumer price increases like for example eggs went up 16% in April, M2 is up 20% yoy. As I forecasted stagflation for next several years we officially have 14.7% unemployment (in reality above 30%) going higher, real inflation above 10% and rising. Right now expect to see rising consumer prices inflation (at grocery store) but falling asset prices deflation (stocks, potentially bonds if bond bubble pops). Commodities are very cheap right now so expect them to skyrocket about halfway thru just like 08. Look at how cheap silver, oil and other commodities are. Gold is cheap to money supply, but in terms of silver, oil and other commodities gold is expensive. Once the short term commodity deflation ends, I expect Gold to go way up, but I also expect Silver, Oil, and other commodities to go up faster than Gold.