SPX weekly preview and what to watch for

업데이트됨

All in the video - 4400 is going to decide whether or not we continue the uptrend. For short term a little higher makes sense, but if this is a bear market rally, this is typical kind of movement. Sometimes they go a little higher, consolidate and pullback again. I cover everything in the video. Thank you for being patient and for your support.

노트

Here's an inverse chart of SPX daily, good to look at for a different perspective. I've added the trendline as i think a little "lower"on this chart looks possible and that would be a perfect target. We want to consider this as a buy or sell from the structure.

노트

good morning, on futures a push up to create one more hourly bear divergence makes sense, but it doesn't have to happen. I still think the target is still slightly higher as of now.

노트

yields (TYX) are at daily BB support and showing hidden daily bullish divergence. If the market sells down, TYX climbing up again may be the reason

노트

15minute RSI hinting at one more high to create a divergent high, then I think it's probably coming down some.

노트

IWM and DJT both very weak today, sometimes a leading indicator

노트

the chance for another divergent high at the end of the day is quite good, but with IWM and DJT both showing weakness, I think tomorrow will be a down day. How much is hard to tell.

노트

Good morning, 15 minute RSI still looks like it wants to go higher on SPX, if so we could have a swing up in the morning to create a breakout scenario. With the divergence it may fail so caution is necessary.

노트

OK we have a Divergent high on the mid time frames now, Could certainly go higher but it's a warning that a pullback is likely soon.

노트

Boring day, and usually a creep up like this should not be shorted - aka "never short a creeping market". DJT and IWM both weak again today - two days in a row - but they both look like they are going to push up tomorrow. 18ma still at 4393 on SPX cash and I'm still thinking it gets there and slightly over 4400. They are taking their time now.

노트

Good morning, another attemt at the high overnight. Looks like a 5 wave move. Powell speaks at 915, so I still expect a push up to 4395-4400 where the 18 weekly MA is, then we'll see what happens.

노트

for those following USOIL the bear flag target has been reached.

노트

watching for a false breakout, RSI is warning of bigger reversal now.

노트

No guarantee's, but it would make sense for them to get above the previous highs to fill the gap on SPX I mentioned and convince bulls of a breakout. RSI on hourly will show triple bearish divergence.

노트

one more move up is likely with the RSI at these levels. I wouldn't get too excited yet.

노트

it's possible it's finished it's uptrend for now and we get a pullback. Certainly mid time frame rsi is bearish enough. Hard to say at this point. Really thought they would go higher first.

노트

the uptrend is still holding - higher lows and higher highs. With the hourly RSI showing hidden bull divergence another move up is still quite possible to my eye. I would be cautious here.

노트

yes so one more high is likely 4400+

노트

another look at spx inverse chart, we're in the zone, but it can go down more -

노트

interesting about the close, they stopped at the trendline which broke in the morning. It's possibly a truncated 5th wave, I don't know. Tomorrow will tell us more.

노트

Nope no sell off overnight, so a crack at 4400 is still likely. - the gap fill could happen today with the Jobs numbers. Powell speaks at 2pm. I expect a strong move up. If they sell down, expect it to be bought. RSI still hinting at higher prices.

노트

If the upper trendline is correct ( market always goes higher than I expect) - 4420 may be the target.

노트

still a good chance this goes higher, another ABC like the others I think.

노트

this is likely going to short squeeze into and after Powell, then bears have a shot. Right here with the RSI this low on smaller time frames I don't think it goes down much more today - if at all.

노트

ok maybe they are going to sell it afterall, but i still don't like the rsi here. we are still making higher highs and higher lows so far. under the previous low would be more promising for bears. right now this just a dip....

노트

USOIL getting a bid at support and bear flag target area. Could be foreshadowing some event.

노트

this move up still looks correct

노트

lower low, there are two supports, I suspect they will try to get to the higher one at 4370, it's an objective short opportunity

노트

first target if this doesn't go any higher (becoming less likely now) is 4321, the gap fill.

노트

Although today looked bad, the RSI is very VERY low on mid time frames and I usually find that's where the bear traps occur. Yes, it could be the top, however this could also be a 4th wave correction with 5 coming next. It wouldn't surprise me the least bit if they STILL got over 4400 tomorrow or into next week before a larger pullback.

노트

Hourly RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom - that's pretty extreme already .

노트

No continued sell off overnight, the chances for another high to take out shorts is possible with RSI this low on mid time frames. If they start making lower lows this will be invalidated.

노트

A higher high would complete the count and create what I would consider a bull trap.

노트

if they can't get over 4370 resistance the day will be down.

노트

for bears, a push up today would look better for a more substantial downside coming, but if they sell today likely it's an abc and we'll probably go higher starting next week. Either is possible, 4370 is key to keep going up to 4400+ today.

노트

trapped between support and resistance, a break and hold above or below will decide the direction for the rest of the day and probably into Monday.

노트

breaking up, if it holds target is still 4400+

Good luck, out for the day.

노트

just got back so quick update, targets have been reached - 4400 area. Gap on SPX cash and spy filled. 18ma weekly reached. Certainly this can go higher but we're having steep bearish divergence on the mid time frames now. Personally I think we'll come down next week, how much is uncertain at this point. Have a good weekend!