SP500 MAJOR RECESSION COMING...

8월 21일

The unemployment rate has been steadily rising for the past year, which as seen on the comparison regularly precedes major economic downturn.

8월 21일

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Cycles? Algorithms? Matrix?



lol

8월 21일

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edition.cnn.com/2024/08/21/economy/bls-jobs-revisions/index.html

8월 26일

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SMART MONEY
- The 0.1% are predominantly selling.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/warren-buffett-owns-more-t-bills-yields-federal-reserve-berkshire-2024-8
secform4.com/insider-trading/1045810.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1018724.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1326801.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1652044.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1067983.htm

DEBT/DERIVATIVES BUBBLE
- Top 100 banks in US have at least around 209 trillion USD in derivatives exposure.
- Just the size of the YEN carry trade could be 20 trillion +.
- Personal debt at unprecedented highs. $1.3 trillion in the US, third of that created in the past year.
- "Fifty banks saw unrealized losses on their investment securities portfolios exceed at least 50% of their capital equity in the first quarter of 2024,"

fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/unbooked-losses-banks-capital-equity
usbanklocations.com/bank-rank/derivatives.html
channelnewsasia.com/business/japans-government-debt-us20-trillion-carry-trade-deutsche-bank-3919416
abcnews.go.com/US/americans-credit-card-debt-hits-record-113-trillion/story?id=106990807

POSSIBLE BLACK SWANS
- Collapse of a financial institution
- New war (Israel x Iran, China x Taiwan...)
- More unwinding of the YEN carry trade

NVDA x CSCO comparison
- Could it really be more obvious?


Remember how they stopped the August flash crash?
- archive.ph/2024.08.05-141947/https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-traders-furious-outages-hit-major-us-brokerages-amid-black-monday-chaos

Remember how one of the biggest causes of the 1929 crash was due to people getting into debt over investments?
britannica.com/event/stock-market-crash-of-1929

All of that being said, I'm convinced we are heading into a recession of a size none of us saw yet. Seems unimaginable - always does until it doesn't.



Food for thought.

9월 20일

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Current view at NASDAQ with the upcoming rate cuts: