I have been using intraday extremes to develop 161.8% Fib targets and now we are simply reversing that process to look for downside targets.
Under this method, 2039 stands out compared 2032 under to a big picture 61.8% retracement from 1811 to 2128. In the larger scheme of things, 7 points is very little.
After the 120 point drop Thursday night, the market gapped lower, made a high of 1973 and “officially” closed in the 1933 area though after hours it got in the 1925 area.
Thursdays high was close to a 50% of the extremes of Thursday night which would have been 1968.
Believing the market will repeat itself and afford some retracement, we could easily see a high on Monday around our old friend of 2050 (maybe 2054) although this will require overcoming fierce resistance at 2048 and 2043 and the trend line slightly below.
However, in the past days trend lines have been given little respect.
From 2050, I expect a path towards the 2039/2040 area subdivided into countless intermediate waves which cannot be anticipated.
On the path down, we should meet resistance at the 200 DMA (2121) and 1987, 1960, 1951, the latter established pivot points. Of course, there are others but on the weekly candles these are prominent.
And the market is not oversold, as the McClellan Oscillator is at only -100 and usually turns when at -150
P.S. One follower suggested I would get more votes if I included less text, but context is everything and I believe charts must be read in the light of events and market internals.
Under this method, 2039 stands out compared 2032 under to a big picture 61.8% retracement from 1811 to 2128. In the larger scheme of things, 7 points is very little.
After the 120 point drop Thursday night, the market gapped lower, made a high of 1973 and “officially” closed in the 1933 area though after hours it got in the 1925 area.
Thursdays high was close to a 50% of the extremes of Thursday night which would have been 1968.
Believing the market will repeat itself and afford some retracement, we could easily see a high on Monday around our old friend of 2050 (maybe 2054) although this will require overcoming fierce resistance at 2048 and 2043 and the trend line slightly below.
However, in the past days trend lines have been given little respect.
From 2050, I expect a path towards the 2039/2040 area subdivided into countless intermediate waves which cannot be anticipated.
On the path down, we should meet resistance at the 200 DMA (2121) and 1987, 1960, 1951, the latter established pivot points. Of course, there are others but on the weekly candles these are prominent.
And the market is not oversold, as the McClellan Oscillator is at only -100 and usually turns when at -150
P.S. One follower suggested I would get more votes if I included less text, but context is everything and I believe charts must be read in the light of events and market internals.
코멘트:
The tile is screwed up and some of this text is as well. Always in a hurry but 1940 is the proposed target.