Short opportunity, SP500 set to fall IF some conditions are met!

2019년 2월 13일

As you may know, the SP500 has been rallying since the FED chairman, Jerome Powell, pivoted to a more easy interest rate policy. Moreover, it has also been pushed by signals indicating that the United States and China could reach a trade agreement soon and that could end as well the government shutdown. Tomorrow, 14/02/2019 and 02/15/2019, senior officials of both countries will meet to find a solution to their disputes.

Despite this good news, my fundamental and technical analysis indicates that Wall Street will soon fall for the following reasons:

- The stupendous results of the companies in the last quarters, due to tax cuts, are decreasing. Wall Street is already showing worse results than the previous quarter.

- There is still a lot of uncertainty around the world, even so, the SP is close to historical maximums.

- Technical analysis shows a clear resistance at current levels, which will be overcome only in the event that the USA and China reach a commercial agreement.

- There has been a 36% decrease in short positions in the last three days, indicating a possible change in trend.

I personally will open a short position IF ALL the points mentioned below are met:

- USA and China do not reach a commercial agreement in the coming days.

- The RSI and the MACD break down.

- The SP500 breaks the uptrend line.

2019년 3월 18일

노트

Finally, the conditions did not meet requirements, therefore we did not open the trade.

2019년 3월 18일

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