롱

Rheinmetall opportunity of 25% upside

업데이트됨

Rheinmetall dipped today due to concerns of the European "far-right" (half of them centrists lmao) wanting peace with Russia in the future. This doesn't change anything for Rheinmetall though.

Key facts:
- Earnings grew by 21.8% over the 2023.
- Earnings are forecast to grow 26.06% per year.
- Revenue expected to grow 40% this year.
- New deal with Continental Ag. to hire new employees to fulfill the demand.
- Fair value estimated at 1100-1200 EUR per share.

War scenarios:
- A new conflict means growth of 5% + for each arms dealer as seen many times.
- If the war in Ukraine continues, Rheinmetall gets more deals.
- If the war ends, European countries will need to replenish ammunition storages, which is expected to take up to 10-15 years.

Additionaly:
- Both Trump and Kennedy Jr. expressed how European NATO members should start to fulfill their obligations of 2% GDP budget for army if they want the US to protect them.
- Around 17-18 countries do not meet this obligation yet, most of them being customers of Rheinmetall already.
- The total combined deficit of these countries sits around 44 billion USD as of 2024.

Sources:
reuters.com/article/idUSL8N32R4T9/
reuters.com/world/nato-chief-says-18-countries-meet-2-military-spending-target-2024-02-14/
ft.com/content/99facdd9-bb1d-4ed3-93ef-d059acf4b0ce
simplywall.st/stocks/de/capital-goods/etr-rhm/rheinmetall-shares

코멘트

Coming along nicely.

코멘트

Filling gaps as always

매매 수동청산

Not the intended target, the earnings were positive however thanks to the current mood on markets not much reaction. As I've disclosed before I expect a major recession thus this is the point where I close my trade with around 5% gain.