Weekly QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV)

Weekly QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV)

📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment appears bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which has contributed to recent selling pressure and possible hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, we will start receiving updated economic data again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could trigger a renewed bullish momentum.

NVDA will report earnings this Wednesday after market close. I will be watching closely in my view, if NVDA were to miss expectations, QQQ and SPY could see a strong retracement. However, I think this is unlikely. I expect solid earnings growth and believe the AI cycle continues to support upside.

Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration aims to finalize its trade agreement with China by Thanksgiving (November 27). This could add further bullish sentiment to the market.

📈 Technical Analysis
The market showed a strong bounce on Friday after tapping the 599 level. RSI has also reset, meaning price is no longer overbought. We remain inside the weekly range, and price has reached the 0.75 max discount zone for the second time.

📌 Game Plan – Prediction
Bullish Scenario (Black Line):
I think this scenario is more likely. I want to see price close a 4H candle above 613. If that happens, I will be targeting 618 next. Price may run 618, pull back slightly, then eventually push toward 625 and potentially all-time highs around 637.

Bearish Scenario (Red Line):
If we see strong selling on Monday, I will assume price may follow the bearish path. In that case, I expect a move toward 595.5 and then the range low at 589. From there, we could see a bounce and a reclaim of 595.5.

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⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.