PayPal 79% down from ATH!! Under massive discount??

2023년 8월 6일

I do not do manual analysis on anything. Instead, I develop methods to do the analysis. This way, we can be free from bias, and we measure things objectively.

Having said that, purely statistics based analysis does not take into consideration recent news events and other economical or political impacts on the company.

I developed this method to measure the discounted price probability of stocks based on its historical values of fundamentals and prices. Here is a summary of what is happening with PayPal!!

1. Price down 79% from peak. This is also 98% discount if you consider drawdown of prices from ATH
   
2. Most of the fundamentals are almost at all-time high. Exception is cashflow - that is in the negative territory
   
3. Profit and operating margins are down slightly compared to its ATH
   
4. Returns in comparison to capital, earning and assets are near ATH
   
5. Debts have significantly increased
   

Though the algorithm says probability of being discounted is pretty high, it takes all aspects into consideration and gives equal weightage. Will the significant increase in debt play a major role in the reduction of value, considering the increasing interest rates?