NZD/USD - Central Bank Can't Do Much Except 'Hope', Part II - 8/
Price action says it all. Something can't go down even after dovish events then naturally the path of least resistance is higher. RBA and RBNZ should stop fighting the losing battle and be at peace with the reality. Yields from developed nations aren't stopping from downward spiral and there is nothing these antipodean countries can do as long as they offer the rates much higher than their bigger counterparts.
There is no doubt about the medium term direction about AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Only thing is, from where to hop on board. Today's RBNZ can give us that opportunity. We are sticking with the same levels from where we got long NZD/USD last month. Following are the NZD/USD trade set-ups based on RBNZ meeting outcome scenarios,
No Cut - Then no dip either and NZD/USD will shoot to 0.7600 in rush. Easy jump on the wagon trade with strict risk control for new comers.
Cut as expected ( 25 basis point ) or more ( 50 basis point ) - In both scenarios, just buy the dip. Support levels are again obvious at 0.7000 / 0.69000 and 0.68000.
Also the statement and commentary after the event itself is more important but again, if it is dovish then it will just give us more juicy levels near 0.6800 to get in !
There is no doubt about the medium term direction about AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Only thing is, from where to hop on board. Today's RBNZ can give us that opportunity. We are sticking with the same levels from where we got long NZD/USD last month. Following are the NZD/USD trade set-ups based on RBNZ meeting outcome scenarios,
No Cut - Then no dip either and NZD/USD will shoot to 0.7600 in rush. Easy jump on the wagon trade with strict risk control for new comers.
Cut as expected ( 25 basis point ) or more ( 50 basis point ) - In both scenarios, just buy the dip. Support levels are again obvious at 0.7000 / 0.69000 and 0.68000.
Also the statement and commentary after the event itself is more important but again, if it is dovish then it will just give us more juicy levels near 0.6800 to get in !
