NZD Bearish structure

2020년 8월 14일

The NZD currency has printed bearish structure on the daily time frame as well as the h4 time frame, price has just established below the weekly support level . More bearishness can be expected on this currency

the fundamental outlook below also gives us a better picture

Interest rates at all time lows
0.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expanded its large scale asset purchase (LSAP) programme up to NZD 100 billion on August 12th, 2020, amid significant uncertainty due to the COVID-19 crisis, while holding its official cash rate/OCR steady at a record low of 0.25%, as widely expected. Policymakers warned that policy rates might have to go below zero as the country was plunged back into lockdown, adding that the economic risks remain to the downside. The board viewed that domestic economic activity remains below the level it was at prior to the outbreak, and that a sustainable recovery in investment and employment depends on both the degree to which the virus is contained effectively. The board noted that fiscal policy continues to provide the primary support to the economy, as it is appropriate given the pace and scale of the economic shock.

Falling inflation

Inflation Rate in New Zealand is expected to be 1.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in New Zealand to stand at 0.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 0.80 percent in 2021 and 1.30 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.

unemployment expected to increase by 4%

Unemployment Rate in New Zealand is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in New Zealand to stand at 7.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 7.50 percent in 2021 and 6.80 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.