Commodity currencies, esp, AUD & NZD are showing potential Gartley patterns when paired with USD and JPY, on daily charts. We have already seen AUDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDUSD etc. Now, here I see the same pattern forming in NZDJPY. Of course, much of the move has already happened, as the pair descended from 82.60 (BC leg of the XABCD pattern) to 80.30. But I still see another 200 pips lower from here, provided the RBNZ doesn't turn hawkish tomorrow. I do think this saber-rattling between US and North Korea will keep a lid on USDJPY and any move higher from 112 will be short-lived. Add to that, if RBNZ is dovish and USD maintains its strength, all put together, NZDJPY will head lower. Just to be cautious, I would wait till 81.50 to short the pair, then all the way to 78! Happy trading.
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4 hours to go... RBNZ policy event could trigger 100-150 pips either way, I feel. For some reason, even as other major currencies have lost ground versus USD since Asian session, NZD has gained and is this saying something? I don't know. So, tread carefully. May be, just a speculation on my part, the big players are taking NZD higher just so that they could short it at the best price. This applies to all NZD crosses.