Nzdjpy proxy sell

2020년 1월 28일

Bearish hammer under the 200ema Daily. Risk off very strong especially considering U.S. new home sales come in weaker along with German Ifo Business conditions not meeting expectations.
TARGET $70.50 short term. Aud business confidence is coming soon which could provide a nice spike to sell if it beats expectations.

There are a few key channels by which NZ will definitely be affected by the new coronavirus. China has cancelled tour-group bookings; these account for around a third of NZ tourist arrivals from that country.

Reduced dining out in China will lower demand for NZ food, which tends to sit at the luxury end of the market where the food service channel is very important. This presents downside risk to both meat and dairy prices in the near term.

And the NZD will likely be under pressure. These are the ‘knowns’. Beyond this, given it appears people are infectious before they are diagnosable, it seems likely the virus will rapidly become widespread, impacting economic activity (especially tourism) on a global scale. If it gets established in NZ that’s another ballgame.

This could be a game changer for not just global markets but the global economy. Its likely scale and impact are highly uncertain, but the market’s alarm looks justified.