Fundamental Backdrop to NZDCAD with Trade Plan

Fundamentals:
New Zealand's upside surprises in growth data, the stabilization of dairy prices and its expansionary fiscal measures are over. These things have propped up the kiwi. With these things moved out of the way, the focus of banks will be bearish on the kiwi. I believe that oil prices will rise to $100. Also, I believe that the relative to New Zealand, Canda has more economic strength.

Technicals:
Med. PBS
dHd
downward sloping tl + horizontal resistance rejection
first pb of new trend
engulfing bearish pattern
NR4 and IB Bars last week and this week
MACD-Ichimoku agrees with the new trend
slow channel down

Trade Plan:
Short NZD/CAD with a stop above weekly resistance of 0.8425 or 0.8250.
Target: 0.7825