NQ - 1Hr / Continuation After Consolidation OR Reversal
업데이트됨
After an unprecedented move in Price... Something which has never occurred,
the record moves Up for the Daily Price EOD...
We cannot assume, there will not be further Upside.
___________________________________________________________________
Trading Probabilities is the Best we can do.
When presented with Opportunity... ie. A setup that favors our Trades/Positions,
seizing them is our Default.
Trading what we see, not feel nor project, we obey.
Timing trades can be extreme in difficulty when Operators have a clear advantage.
___________________________________________________________________
Managing RISK in this environment requires adherence to limiting DrawDowns
while maintaining the patience to permit the Trade(s) time to develop.
Managing Capital, our methodology requires Inversion Entry at Levels.
This permits us to be early, employing increasingly larger entries Price moves
against our Trade(s).
"Certainty" clearly does not exist.
___________________________________________________________________
At virtually any moment in time, Options Leverage can move Price well against
our Positions.
And with the Equity Complex functioning as the "Economy" - Risks compound as
the vested interest in keeping it higher and higher remains a clear threat to
Sellers.
___________________________________________________________________
QCOM is an excellent example.
The EPS was frankly disappointing.
The Net was down 5% - (Input Cost Driven)
QTC/QTL - Shortages provide Pricing Power - QTC up 56%.
QTL up 3%.
For now, QCOM is able to forward "Inflation aka Pricing Power"
The issue, this is waning... REV's up 12%
Costs - Up 36%
QCOM is now our 3rd Largest SELL Position.
Puts: 200: 140 - 180 (-16.7)
Underlying: 12.5 @ 158.12 (-100)
Our Hedge in Underlying was closed@ 164 (+47)
Net the Position is Negative (69)
On 9/9 we are fully exposed to the SELL.
If required, we will re-enter Hedge, but our Indicators suggest the
Gamma Squeeze is ending.
Large Gaps are below, when will they fill.
We have until January on Options, Shares, as much time as needed.
These are Positions, not Trades.
___________________________________________________________________
NQ's exposure to Tesla is 6%, how much did Tesla drag the NQ yesterday...
Not much.
___________________________________________________________________
What is working for Probability are the Issues we have outlined in prior NQ Commentaries.
The above Chart Illustrates in no uncertain terms what to do and where.
___________________________________________________________________
We will continue to Hold / Press into Wednesday.
It has the Potential to be an unusual reversal Day, a wider Range with a Lower Low.
For now, we are simply observing Price Chop and Wedge into the Break.
___________________________________________________________________
Within this Environment - Possibilities are endless.
Position: 61.2% into SELL.
Our Stop is well above Bar 8/9 and will balance 64.2% into BUY IF necessary to
Limit losses.
the record moves Up for the Daily Price EOD...
We cannot assume, there will not be further Upside.
___________________________________________________________________
Trading Probabilities is the Best we can do.
When presented with Opportunity... ie. A setup that favors our Trades/Positions,
seizing them is our Default.
Trading what we see, not feel nor project, we obey.
Timing trades can be extreme in difficulty when Operators have a clear advantage.
___________________________________________________________________
Managing RISK in this environment requires adherence to limiting DrawDowns
while maintaining the patience to permit the Trade(s) time to develop.
Managing Capital, our methodology requires Inversion Entry at Levels.
This permits us to be early, employing increasingly larger entries Price moves
against our Trade(s).
"Certainty" clearly does not exist.
___________________________________________________________________
At virtually any moment in time, Options Leverage can move Price well against
our Positions.
And with the Equity Complex functioning as the "Economy" - Risks compound as
the vested interest in keeping it higher and higher remains a clear threat to
Sellers.
___________________________________________________________________
QCOM is an excellent example.
The EPS was frankly disappointing.
The Net was down 5% - (Input Cost Driven)
QTC/QTL - Shortages provide Pricing Power - QTC up 56%.
QTL up 3%.
For now, QCOM is able to forward "Inflation aka Pricing Power"
The issue, this is waning... REV's up 12%
Costs - Up 36%
QCOM is now our 3rd Largest SELL Position.
Puts: 200: 140 - 180 (-16.7)
Underlying: 12.5 @ 158.12 (-100)
Our Hedge in Underlying was closed@ 164 (+47)
Net the Position is Negative (69)
On 9/9 we are fully exposed to the SELL.
If required, we will re-enter Hedge, but our Indicators suggest the
Gamma Squeeze is ending.
Large Gaps are below, when will they fill.
We have until January on Options, Shares, as much time as needed.
These are Positions, not Trades.
___________________________________________________________________
NQ's exposure to Tesla is 6%, how much did Tesla drag the NQ yesterday...
Not much.
___________________________________________________________________
What is working for Probability are the Issues we have outlined in prior NQ Commentaries.
The above Chart Illustrates in no uncertain terms what to do and where.
___________________________________________________________________
We will continue to Hold / Press into Wednesday.
It has the Potential to be an unusual reversal Day, a wider Range with a Lower Low.
For now, we are simply observing Price Chop and Wedge into the Break.
___________________________________________________________________
Within this Environment - Possibilities are endless.
Position: 61.2% into SELL.
Our Stop is well above Bar 8/9 and will balance 64.2% into BUY IF necessary to
Limit losses.
코멘트
Potential RANGE for Today 16252 - 16388코멘트
Inflation Numbers @ 830 AM EST will be indicated by Bond Market @ 8 AM EST.코멘트
We are using the Range Boundaries as our Draw.코멘트
DOM Pre-NYSE Open Volume support @ 361.25코멘트
Sold for Gap Fill, it might not as DOM 361.50 held88s to 72 Stop
코멘트
Stpd코멘트
34SMA will be the next Price Objective, should it not reverse or retrace there, the decline will begin waterfailling.코멘트
34SMA Hourly, not Daily.
면책사항
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