NQ - Daily / Perfection

2022년 1월 20일

I indicated 1C or the primary correction would be large.

The Level for 1C 001 or the .618 of the measured move
would complete @ 14771.

It came to 14773, prior to Globex making a Lower Low.

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2 Days in a row we sold the Levels indicated for RT, they
traded perfectly. We held fo the Gap Fills and beyond
today for the ES Break of 4505.

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As a Trader, ask yourself, after today, do you believe the
1.618 comes into the Trade @ 14,156.

OR

Is 1C complete with a 130+ Tick Dip In?

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I mentioned in a prior commentary there are a large number
of Leap Calls deep in the money that expire Friday. The
selling of this $125 Billion Position has wreaked havoc on
the Equity Complex.

The Delta squaring was axiomatic as the position was a very
large offsides for Writers.

They buy Volatility to hedge, they will not square by the
underlying Long - they know it all this will be SOLD.

Gamma has been explained here a number of times.

Those who paid attention knew exactly what to do.

BUY VX, SELL the YM NQ ES.

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Very simple.

1C retracements are very weak, very. They appear dramatic
as the ranges are large, but in broader Context - they are quite
small on a percentage basis of the Implied range and Price
Objectives.

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My hope is those following here made an immense amount of $.

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The 2/5 is now setting up, these are violent affairs that take most
Traders off guard. They are vicious and move in 3 Counts.

2A Up / 2B Down / 2 C Up - these can be to the.382 to .500 with a
mild overthrow to screw the Chasers prior to 3/5 beginning (the
Real move lower).

Dip Buyers have been scorched. They repeatedly tried calling 7 since
the November Highs. Calls for 18K and 20 K were common.

When the FED no longer is supporting the Equity Complex... You Sell.

We detailed this in dozens of CommentAary regarding Interest Rates,
Distribution Patterns, 3x and 4X Negative Divergences, Repo Contraction,
m@ Velocity, Consumer Confidence, and far more.

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Identical to my Bond Thesis, it requires time to construct Complex
Highs, as Distribution had no real Buyers left, Margin was at all time
highs... on and on it goes until it does not.

This will drag on for some time, probably until just ahead of the
March FOMC, January is ahead next week and may provide
the impetus for a Low prior for 2/5 or we may see 2/5 begin from
14156.

The Algos enjoy trapping everyone at Lows only to absolutely Rip in
Reverse to scorch the Order Book of Sellers at Lows and stops runs
continue all the way to the .500% of the entire Correction.

2022년 1월 21일

코멘트

Daily Count @ 5/8