NQ/QQQ Weekend Levels & Trade Preparation (Feb27-Mar3)
The Nasdaq 100 experienced a 3.17% loss last week, with prices closing below the 9/21 EMAs and 200 SMA. All S&P sectors closed the week red, with XLY and XLRE finishing down more than 4%, while the strongest sector, XLP, dropped only .04% on the week. The Nasdaq 100 will start the week near the 12000 psychological level and the 55 EMA. Although it remains above the long-term downward trendline, it is now below the key Dec 12th pivot high. Key support below is the downward trend line and the 50/618 fib zone, while key resistance above is the 200 SMA and Dec 12th pivot. The narrative has shifted from the potential "Feb pivot" to "higher for longer" and a possible 50 basis point rate hike. This week's economic data includes US Durable Goods, Manufacturing & Services PMI, and Jobless Claims. Earnings reports are also expected from big retailers such as M, LOW, COST, TGT, JWN as well as high-followed growth companies such as ZM, NIO, CRM, SNOW, CELH, and FSLR. The next FOMC rate decision is scheduled for Mar 21/22. The Nasdaq 100 has traded lower prior to the decision in four out of the previous seven rate announcements.
SUMMARY:
• Nasdaq posted a 3.17% loss last week after trading in a range of 483 points
• Price closed below the 9/21 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week red with XLY & XLRE finishing down more than 4%. Strongest sector was XLP dropping only .04% on the week.
• NQ will start the week near the 12000 psychological level right at the 55 ema.
• NQ remains above the long term downward trendline but is now below the key Dec 12th pivot high
• Key support below is the downward trend line and the 50/618 fib zone below
• Key resistance above is the 200 sma & Dec 12th pivot
• Narrative has flipped from potential “Feb pivot” back to “higher for longer” and potential 50 basis point rate hike
• This week’s econ data includes US Durable Goods, Manufacturing & Services PMI as well as Jobless Claims
• Earnings this week continue with reports from big retails such as M, LOW, COST, TGT, JWN as well as reports from high followed growth companies such as ZM, NIO, CRM, SNOW, CELH & FSLR.
• The next FOMC Rate decision is scheduled for Mar 21/22. The NQ has traded lower prior to the decision 4 out of the previous 7 rate announcements.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Durable Goods & Fed’s Jefferson speaks
Tuesday Canadian GDP & Fed’s Goolsbee speaks
Wednesday S&P ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Labour Costs & Fed’s Waller & Kashkari speak
Friday US ISM Services PMI & Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman & Barkin speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, LAZR, OXY, UHS, WDAY, ZM
Tuesday A, AAP, ADT, AMC, BNS, FSLR, HPQ, MNST, MQ, RIVN, ROST, SJM, TGT
Wednesday CELH, CRM, DLTR, HGV, KSS, LOW, NIO, OKTA, PLUG, PSTG, RY, SNOW, VEEV, STWD, WB, WEN, SPLK
Thursday AVGO, BBY, BILI, BUD, CHPT, CNQ, COST, CPG, DELL, HPE, JWN, KR, M, MRVL, SFM, TD, ZS
Friday Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above 55 ema
NQ above descending trendline
Current pattern may be seen as large bullish flag
Potential positive reaction to econ data
Potential positive reaction to earnings
From the 26th of the month to the 6th of the following month is a bullish period
Stoch (5,1) is Oversold
BEARISH NOTES
NQ closed below 9/21 ema
NQ rejected at the HTF 382 Fib RT
NQ closed below the 200 SMA
Potential negative reaction to econ. data
Potential negative reaction to earnings
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing off longer term support
End of February through beginning of March is seasonally bearish
SUMMARY:
• Nasdaq posted a 3.17% loss last week after trading in a range of 483 points
• Price closed below the 9/21 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week red with XLY & XLRE finishing down more than 4%. Strongest sector was XLP dropping only .04% on the week.
• NQ will start the week near the 12000 psychological level right at the 55 ema.
• NQ remains above the long term downward trendline but is now below the key Dec 12th pivot high
• Key support below is the downward trend line and the 50/618 fib zone below
• Key resistance above is the 200 sma & Dec 12th pivot
• Narrative has flipped from potential “Feb pivot” back to “higher for longer” and potential 50 basis point rate hike
• This week’s econ data includes US Durable Goods, Manufacturing & Services PMI as well as Jobless Claims
• Earnings this week continue with reports from big retails such as M, LOW, COST, TGT, JWN as well as reports from high followed growth companies such as ZM, NIO, CRM, SNOW, CELH & FSLR.
• The next FOMC Rate decision is scheduled for Mar 21/22. The NQ has traded lower prior to the decision 4 out of the previous 7 rate announcements.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Durable Goods & Fed’s Jefferson speaks
Tuesday Canadian GDP & Fed’s Goolsbee speaks
Wednesday S&P ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Labour Costs & Fed’s Waller & Kashkari speak
Friday US ISM Services PMI & Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman & Barkin speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, LAZR, OXY, UHS, WDAY, ZM
Tuesday A, AAP, ADT, AMC, BNS, FSLR, HPQ, MNST, MQ, RIVN, ROST, SJM, TGT
Wednesday CELH, CRM, DLTR, HGV, KSS, LOW, NIO, OKTA, PLUG, PSTG, RY, SNOW, VEEV, STWD, WB, WEN, SPLK
Thursday AVGO, BBY, BILI, BUD, CHPT, CNQ, COST, CPG, DELL, HPE, JWN, KR, M, MRVL, SFM, TD, ZS
Friday Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
NQ above 55 ema
NQ above descending trendline
Current pattern may be seen as large bullish flag
Potential positive reaction to econ data
Potential positive reaction to earnings
From the 26th of the month to the 6th of the following month is a bullish period
Stoch (5,1) is Oversold
BEARISH NOTES
NQ closed below 9/21 ema
NQ rejected at the HTF 382 Fib RT
NQ closed below the 200 SMA
Potential negative reaction to econ. data
Potential negative reaction to earnings
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing off longer term support
End of February through beginning of March is seasonally bearish
코멘트:
Quick look at the weekly. Note that is looks less bearish than the daily. From a zoomed out perspective you can see price has only just retested the breakout point so far. Could easily bounce from here.
코멘트:
NQ made and early attempt yesterday to push up into the red resistance zone but was rejected around the 21 ema. Price fell but found support at the 200 SMA. Potential for sideways chop between the two levels until 1 side give way. NQ has yet to fully test test the descending trendline below.
코멘트:
Sorry late on this post. Have been taping a lot of video lately of my live trading so getting distracted. Two way price action to start but the the overhead resistance proved to be too much and price has pushed into the Friday low. Green arrows are the targets below if bearish momentum continues. Watch for harsh reversal at all pivots.
코멘트:
NQ Broke yesterday's low during the overnight session. Lower targets still in play. Negative reaction so far from the AM payroll data and TSLA is also weighing on the market.
코멘트:
$NQ_F has bounce to start the morning. Watching the 50% retracement of the gap. If price can not reclaim the 50% I lean bearish. If price reclaims the 50% I look for a full gap fill. Overall trend still down but we may see a further rally before bearish continuation.
코멘트:
The $NQ_F tested lows again yesterday but did not make to my next short target. Instead it ripped higher on dovish tone for Bostic. The move took price back above the 200 sma and is now moving into the 21 ema pre-market. Likely to touch the 21 ema. Must wait to see if it rejects or not. Still in the red zone so a move back down is possible.
