NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17932.2 / 17943.5 / 17,802.90 / 17,855.10
H-L = 141 points
VIX 18.05 / +6.68%
FII DII: +803 Crores
SGX NIFTY @1917H - 17825 / -30 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. 17850-900 is the next hurdle.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A gap-up opening was held for a while but NIFTY failed to even retest the ATH hit on last Friday and then gradually sold off led by INFOSYS and TCS.
It then never retested 17900 levels as the selling pressure was intense amidst increasing VIX.
NIFTY made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY ended the day flat.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
RELIANCE
6.00
INFOSYS
6.00
HDFC BANK
4.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
3.00
MARUTI
2.00
HCL TECH
3.00
ICICI BANK
2.00
DIVIS LABS
2.00
TATA MOTORS
2.00
TCS
1.00
16.00
15.00
Lifter - Draggers = +1
POSITIVES
NIFTY held 17850 levels on a closing basis and 17800 as a good support level.
MARUTI & TATAT MOTORS made a strong bounce back from the slumber - especially MARUTI. It rose 6%+.
HDFC BANK and RELIANCE consolidated moved up on a closing basis.
BANK NIFTY outperformed NIFTY and hit a new ATH and also closed at a new ATH.
NEGATIVES
A significant increase in VIX is of concern indicating likely choppiness as well as wild swings in the Indices.
INFOSYS did not recover at all during the day after the fall.
Even AXIS BANK somehow got influenced by the negative sentiment in NIFTY despite its parent index being strong.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
I had bought 17800 CE when NIFTY turned up after hitting P Close at 17853. The premium paid was 154. The day end was flat and the premium for the day was at 138.
17800 CE is an ITM CE at the close and was so when I bought. Despite this, I lost at least 16 points even when VIX was up by 6.68%!
This is puzzling.
MARUTI shot up by 6%+ and yet had almost zero impact on NIFTY which is surprising. I have not seen such an imbalance for a long time.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
27-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17932.2 / 17943.5 / 17,802.90 / 17,855.10
H-L = 141 points
VIX 18.05 / +6.68%
FII DII: +803 Crores
SGX NIFTY @1917H - 17825 / -30 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. 17850-900 is the next hurdle.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A gap-up opening was held for a while but NIFTY failed to even retest the ATH hit on last Friday and then gradually sold off led by INFOSYS and TCS.
It then never retested 17900 levels as the selling pressure was intense amidst increasing VIX.
NIFTY made a lower high and a lower low.
NIFTY ended the day flat.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
RELIANCE
6.00
INFOSYS
6.00
HDFC BANK
4.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
3.00
MARUTI
2.00
HCL TECH
3.00
ICICI BANK
2.00
DIVIS LABS
2.00
TATA MOTORS
2.00
TCS
1.00
16.00
15.00
Lifter - Draggers = +1
POSITIVES
NIFTY held 17850 levels on a closing basis and 17800 as a good support level.
MARUTI & TATAT MOTORS made a strong bounce back from the slumber - especially MARUTI. It rose 6%+.
HDFC BANK and RELIANCE consolidated moved up on a closing basis.
BANK NIFTY outperformed NIFTY and hit a new ATH and also closed at a new ATH.
NEGATIVES
A significant increase in VIX is of concern indicating likely choppiness as well as wild swings in the Indices.
INFOSYS did not recover at all during the day after the fall.
Even AXIS BANK somehow got influenced by the negative sentiment in NIFTY despite its parent index being strong.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
I had bought 17800 CE when NIFTY turned up after hitting P Close at 17853. The premium paid was 154. The day end was flat and the premium for the day was at 138.
17800 CE is an ITM CE at the close and was so when I bought. Despite this, I lost at least 16 points even when VIX was up by 6.68%!
This is puzzling.
MARUTI shot up by 6%+ and yet had almost zero impact on NIFTY which is surprising. I have not seen such an imbalance for a long time.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
27-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
