Market Still Laughing at FOMC Rate Hike

2022년 4월 5일

Down slightly today and testing the 50 EMA, the markets have realized bullish continuation in spite of rampant inflation and long-term labor shortage challenges ahead.

Daily PA has pushed above 200 EMA with sustained sideways chop for a week, regaining about half of the retracement following the late Nov ATH.

The Federal Reserve FOMC/Central Bank regime has proven ineffective in curtailing an overheated economy driven by unfettered QE and bloated central bank balance sheets.

CPI & PPI reporting for March is released next Monday, the FOMC meets early May prior to the CPI & PPI numbers are released for April.

Major risk of wage-price spiral given significant labor shortage:
- 1.8 jobs available for every employed worker
- Record 5 million more jobs than unemployed

2022년 4월 6일

노트

The market fundamentals lead me to assess the near-term is very bearish.

2022년 4월 11일

노트

Assuming inflation reporting follows the past several months, with higher than projected CPI/PPI...

Expectation is the market will approach April more cautiously with building bearish momentum as central banks scramble to adjust from the last decade+ loose money, dovish approach to reign prices in and attempt to deliver a "soft landing" (whatever that means).

Whatever the markets have "priced in" will likely be insufficient given the Fed's toolbox consists of a hammer and a screwdriver... there's no allen wrench or vice grips in that kit, so it's likely that retail will be getting pounded or screwed (or both).