Short Nasdaq Index

2020년 1월 16일

As you might have seen i have not traded for almost 4/5 weeks and there is a good reason behind it. When i saw the markets behaving erratically, every negative news being considered positive , iran issu/risk impact completely neglected ,focus on trade deal phase 1 (which aint even full of promises), tweets from trump and so on, i decided to sit back and just observe until i see a clear direction.

The wait has been long but fruitful considering nasdaq went from 8.2k to 9.1k within this span and this i think is extremely overdone. I was lucky enough (and yes you need to be sometimes lucky even in trading), to take some profits and get out before it was extremely blown out of proportion.

I still think we might be stuck in this phase 8-9.5k for a while until april when FED's monetary policy changes and it pulls out all its liquidity from the market.

factors which might affect Nasdaq: (besides tweets from trump and all that crap he spewns)
1. Earnings -> right now the only thing which can bring down the market is bad earnings. as you can see , no risk impact nor bad market data is being considered or looked upon.
2. bad gdp growth -> but i am doubtful about this since right now the market isnt focussing on fundamentals.


the fear and greed index is at record high right now and shows what kind of a state we are in , in the stock market.

Overall:

I am short on nasdaq at 9080

TP 8800
TP2 8500
TP3 8300

I will go back to buying once i see a good correction and pullback.

2020년 1월 17일

노트

i forgot to mention other things in bad data like Non farm payroll data, CPI data and so on. but this is because when the data has been bad in recent times, the market has still shrugged them off and continued to go up. the only thing which had a slight impact on the markets was the gdp which in recent times has been actually good. so bad news is -> ok news, while good news is -> amazing news. has all the signs of a bubble, so we need to be really careful and time our shorts right