NASDAQ - 1990's channels vs. 2010's channels - long way down

2022년 11월 7일

Here is a comparison of the main trading channels for the 1990's run up to the dot com bubble and the 2010's run up to the COVID bubble. We are currently testing the 200-week SMA and at the midline of the green channel (same place as Feb 2001). You can see the top of the blue channel (and bottom of green channel) sitting lower at around 9700, which is the peak in 2020 before the world went crazy with COVID. You can see that a repeat of 2000 crash has a long way to go down from today's price.

The economy actually seems to be quite strong (something like 1.8 job openings per 1 person looking) even if the media keeps trying to convince you otherwise. However, the Fed not letting up on rates is really weighing heavily on the market, especially big tech. I personally would like to think we find support at the 9700 level and hold the green channel for a more steady, controlled rise back to the top of the green channel and test the ATH in 2024-25. However, given the Fed's absolute terrible track record, I expect them to tank the market, and we test at least the midline of the blue channel, which will probably play out as a bounce at 9700 and then a final collapse to the 7000 level to test the COVID low in early 2024.