Why the previous long idea is so interesting....?
I highlighted by red arrows the 3 year cycle lows.
There was a one in 2006 Sept, the next 2009 Sept, then 2012 April, and 2016 March...
And I think the next one is here in 2019 April....
On the monthly chart the bear started in 2006.
The first multi year cycle printed the low in 2006 September. The second one broke down tested back the highs and printed a double top; the low arrived in 2009 September.
The third multi year cycle printed lower lows lower highs : clear bear market with a new low in 2012 April.
The fourth multi year cycle‘s yearly cycle started making higher highs but it was not enough to print a multi year cycle’s higher high. This multi year cycle low ended in 2016 March with a depressive low.
The fifth multi year cycle( we are still in this one) spent most of its time in a range. And the range broke up. Still not a higher high in the multi year cycle but attacking that 5 $ level again.
We are due for a multi year low again. Oil printed it. Gold printed it. So most of the commodity complex is ready to suck in the printed billions what central banks produced in the last few years.
Seasonality. The multi year highs are usually peaking in November - December, so we need to be in position for 6-7 months..
But if we starting a new bull market we might have 2 yearly high. One before summer one after it.
The multi year cycle's gains :
2: 4.2 to 13.6 323%
3: 2.2 to 6.1 272%
4: 1.9 to 5.5 289%
5: 1.6 to 4.87 304%
6: 2.56 to ???
That's why it is so important to try to catch the daily cycle lows these times in Natty...
I highlighted by red arrows the 3 year cycle lows.
There was a one in 2006 Sept, the next 2009 Sept, then 2012 April, and 2016 March...
And I think the next one is here in 2019 April....
On the monthly chart the bear started in 2006.
The first multi year cycle printed the low in 2006 September. The second one broke down tested back the highs and printed a double top; the low arrived in 2009 September.
The third multi year cycle printed lower lows lower highs : clear bear market with a new low in 2012 April.
The fourth multi year cycle‘s yearly cycle started making higher highs but it was not enough to print a multi year cycle’s higher high. This multi year cycle low ended in 2016 March with a depressive low.
The fifth multi year cycle( we are still in this one) spent most of its time in a range. And the range broke up. Still not a higher high in the multi year cycle but attacking that 5 $ level again.
We are due for a multi year low again. Oil printed it. Gold printed it. So most of the commodity complex is ready to suck in the printed billions what central banks produced in the last few years.
Seasonality. The multi year highs are usually peaking in November - December, so we need to be in position for 6-7 months..
But if we starting a new bull market we might have 2 yearly high. One before summer one after it.
The multi year cycle's gains :
2: 4.2 to 13.6 323%
3: 2.2 to 6.1 272%
4: 1.9 to 5.5 289%
5: 1.6 to 4.87 304%
6: 2.56 to ???
That's why it is so important to try to catch the daily cycle lows these times in Natty...
코멘트:
Stick to the position . We are starting the big move
