NANO - Buying into fear and the epitome of oversold

2018년 2월 14일

All,

This one's going to be long, but it's worth a read to understand my logic on this position. I welcome your feedback, as always.

Last week I posted about NANO achieving a nice double-bottom. This would have been a nice moment for a reversal, had the bitgrail hack not happened. For those not aware, BitGrail was "hacked." More accurately the BitGrail developer, "Bomber," had horrible code that double-credited deposits and other issues that led to his eventual insolvency. He may have attempted to save himself for a bit by taking advantage of the NANO ( then XRB) price growth, but clearly did not do a great job and left with an insane amount of NANO (I believe almost 17M). Enterprising individuals have traced the "missing" XRB to Mercatox and have proven it has already been sold on the market and is now in circulation.

So, let's recap:

• Primary NANO exchange BitGrail has a code bug and steals millions of NANO, a la Mt Gox, due to insolvency.
  
• BitGrail owner sells this NANO to on Mercatox to recoup losses. Price begins falling (17M NANO being sold will do that).
  
• BitGrail announces "hack" and locks withdraws as a last-ditch effort to rip funds from their users to maintain solvency.
  
• NANO price TANKS as a result and bomber makes an absolute killing on arbitrage, as NANO begins trading 50% lower on his exchange.
  

The most important detail to remember here is that all that stolen NANO was liquidated in January. You know, the time at which NANO dropped by almost 70%? That's not a coincidence. The massive amount of NANO being sold by Bomber very likely cause the decline in price, and then the hack was the cherry on top. All that NANO has now been liquidated, and NANO'S Mt. Gox is over. That makes this NANO's crater-bottom, just like Bitcoins back in the day.

Now let's get to the technicals! We see an obvious descending wedge over this period of time. We also see strong divergences with MACD and RSI. However, in my opinion most of these technicals mean very little on their own due to the massive fundamental shifts in the underlying. What's most notable to me is that we are currently sitting just above .001BTC. This is a major psychological support level. Since the wedge falls to this point it gains significance because of that, but not in and of itself. Volume is also fairly low.

All of this leads me to conclude that we will very likely see a strong recovery in NANO for the following reasons:

• The selling pressure from Bomber has disappeared
  
• The "Mt Gox of NANO" is over
  
• NANO development team will likely be releasing a suite of new wallets and updates in the next 5-10 business days, acting as a recovery catalyst. These wallets have been in beta for a while now already.
  
• NANO is an incredibly ambitious project and arguably the ideal crypto-currency as it is almost instant and entirely feeless, something no other coin can claim - that hasn't changed.
  

Full disclosure, I already have a position in NANO, but doubled it yesterday at around .00108, as I am that confident in its both near and long-term potential. For those not already involved in NANO, the following strategy would be ideal:

• Open long position at .001 BTC on any stop-loss hunting that is strongly rejected on volume.
  
• Open long position once a new high is established at .00105 ( after confirmation, of course) or, for a more conservative route, at .00107.
  

2018년 2월 14일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

Well, clearly no stop-hunting and buying the dip occurred. NANO is still worth keeping an eye on but there are more promising plays in this market. XRP, WTC, and VEN each look like they have solid profit potential the next week.

2018년 2월 15일

노트

I'm tentatively thinking we may have found our long-term bottom at around the 83K satoshi mark. We rejected that number pretty hard.

Looking at the graph, we need to see some confirming bullish signals. The biggest bullish signal is a break of this descending trendline, which we have yet to accomplish.



An ideal setup for a swing trade would be a retest of the 80-85K area, followed by a rejection. If I see it approach this area again I will probably aggressively enter a trade and keep a tight trigger finger, as NANO could move from its current price back above 100K satoshi very quickly. The profit potential here is just insane, if you are both patient and aggressive (very difficult, of course).

What's most likely, in my opinion, is that we consolidate below 90K for a while before finally entering a much-needed bull run. Sideways action for a few days would, in a lot of regards, be a bullish indicator. But of course, you should still be waiting for that trendline break.

Of course, the final possibility is a fall through 80K, but I feel fairly confident that 80K is the floor (or close to it). Moreso than I did about 100K due purely to the massive increase in volume relative to the volume at 100K, and the fact that BTC is about to go bull which often pumps money into the market.

Also worth noting that there is a good chance the NANO devs release the new desktop and mobile wallets tomorrow, which could kick off a bull run.