MSFT Earnings Expected Move (Iron Condor Inside)

MSFT's earnings announcement is on Wednesday, July 22 AMC.

Based on an analysis of the previous earnings move, the expected move for the upcoming earnings (from MarketChameleon), and by considering some major support points on the daily chart, my expected move for the upcoming earnings is between $190.91 and $214.85.

For earnings plays, I like to play Iron Condors for credit and I always enter the trade 1-2 hours before earnings. Since MSFT's earnings will be on Wednesday, July 22 (After Market Close), I will enter a trade on Wednesday 1-2 hours before market close (IV at its peak), and I intend to close this trade on Thursday at market open (IV crush).

My tentative Iron Condor (L185P, S190P, S220C, L225C) - This can change by Wednesday based on the stock movement until then.
Max Profit: $97
Max Loss: $403

As you can see, this trade is low delta, high probability to expire OTM, low profit, but safe.