Altria Group, Sin & Weed

2021년 2월 15일

Let's start with the obvious, MO has just broken the multi year downward tend for the week interval. If that isn't significant you may need to have your sack examined. You can see the trend beginning in June of 2017. People apparently stopped smoking and stopped believing POT was going to get legalized under the previous administration.

We can see that since April of 2020 MO entered into a consolidation phase. This is significant because it is the longest consolidation since the downtrend began in 2017. Moreover, the Vix is telling us that we are likely stable to continue buying as we have just broken the trend. In the coming weeks we should see the price begin to move up innocuously and then move quickly. Why will it move up?

Incase you haven't noticed our economy is in freefall. Main street is getting brutalized by COVID, GIGANTIC UNEMPLOYMENT, lockdowns, businesses closing for good, mental health disasters, lots of pending evictions and soon foreclosures, bizarre rules about dinning in restaurant and who can open and who can't.

To make matters worse the fed is blowing huge bubbles in the monetary supply the national debt is rumbling and quaking like Mt Saint Helen right before it disappeared. They are using fairytale tricks like stimulus payment, buying bonds, and sublime open market operations of which I will not delve into. What this will lead to is very, very, big inflation. We have already seen a 10% spike in housing prices over 2020.

All that said it makes sense that we are breaking out of the downward trend. People need an escape and sin is how we all like to escape. That smoking habit we gave up in 2017 will come back with a vengeance when the money is gone, wife and kids are gone, hell even your church will be gone. No more safety nets for you!

We now have a totally blue government that will keep no promises except the legalization of POT. ho will benefit from this the most? Big huge pot companies. Who knows how to sell it at this level of the game better than MO?

Looking at the technical side I have put together a wave pattern that has a few handsome moves. No need for greed, who am I kidding with no need for greed? :) So who cares about a small gain from $43-$49? Well with a good chance this is the beginning of the great smoking bull and a dividend of 8% I'm in. back to a new high and beyond. I wouldn't kick $77 per share of MO out of my sack. Will it get there overnight? No. Will it get there in the next four years I sure as heck believe so. There is no indicator that our economic hardships are over or have even crested. We are only just beginning to feel the pain. For those reasons I vote with my bucks to roll up my winnings and watch how high these profits can get.