LINKUSD at a 60/40 decision point.

업데이트됨

Technical Analysis

[I]MA
Chainlink took the day for cryptospace gains today, with a very strong breakout from a descending triangle. Historically when decending triangles break to the upside there is a greater than 60% chance that a reversal is inbound in the relative timeframe (roughly a 2-5 days) If this happens I expect pullbacks to as low as the 100 day moving average (MA) $19.40-$23 then consolidation around the 50d MA $25.60 before the next leg. These targets also line up well with the weekly 10 and 20w MA's for Link which are only slightly lower. On the bullish front if LINK can break the 20d MA, I would expect a test of $31-$32 before a possible retest of $26-$28 and if the crypto space rallies from there I expect strong momentum and quickly testing all time highs, which would account for the 40% we move to the upside.

MACD
During the recent dump Link only wicked below below the 10 on the weekly. Which did reset the MACD to a slightly bullish favor on the weekly. However the daily MACD is still bearish and waiting for a crossover.

[I]RSI
The daily and weekly RSI have been pushed to slightly more bullish positions by the recent dump and are setting higher highs currently. But so little time has passed it I wouldn't rely on it for trade setups yet.

Fundemental Analysis

I like to balance my TA against fundementals, currently there are a confluence of positive and negative pressures on the crypto space. On the bullish side More companies, banks, and institutional investors have added Bitcoin to thier balance sheets this week, I would be careful in not getting too bullish on this as they are just hedging with very small amounts of their cash, but thier public announcements of this is positive for retail and institutional adoption. JP Morgan is rolling out their own Crypto to handle limited numbers of transactions, which may inspire smaller banks to explore already available block chain tech if this proves cost efficent.

On the bearish side, the US treasury bond market is still a looming threat to liquidity in markets around the world. If global stock market volatility increases it may cause a run on the dollar in the short term, which usually has a negative correlation on crypto, gold, and equities. Also F2 Pool or whales on the exchange are continuing to dump BTC on to the market even after the recent futures expired. This may stop soon, but if it doesn't it can be used to put downward pressure on the crypto space at a inflection point.

Hope this is useful

If you took the time to read my thoughts thank you, this is my first analysis, I have posted here. I am a trader in all forms of assets, commodities, and equities, but I am not a licensed or trained professional. So please take this analysis with a lot of skepticism, and do your own research. I made successful trades with LINK today, if you are interested in hearing about trade setups in the future let me know, I am debating wether that kind of information is helpful or just unnecessary fluff. Please feel free to leave any feedback or questions below.

노트

LINK just broke above the 20d MA ($30.10) if it closes in 8hr above this line it is in a very bullish position, I would expect a strong push to $31.80-$32.70 which provided support on the way down recently and will likely act as resistance now. I am waiting for a close above these levels before entering a small position. I still expect a pullback to $26-28 after it exhaust its exuberance unless BTC has a strong breakout from here. If it drops back to $26 I will buy a bigger position.

Fundemental Update
As we exit power hour on the big 3 US stock index the markets are bearish, nothing I'd expect to effect the cryptospace yet. Watching TLT Bond yields are rising and are at a critical moving average, a break down below the 20d MA may trigger Big Money to roll out of other equities and roll into bonds which will create negative pressure on stocks (mostly growth, especially tech), gold, and Crypto this is a bigger but less likely risk to Crypto. The dollar is dropping a little which is slightly positive. BITCOIN is consolidating near previous resistance just below 48K, but it will need to break and hold above 50k to slingshot link towards ATH's.

노트

At the close of the daily candle LINK was not able to close above its 20d MA, I am still bearish on it until it closes above the 20 or drops below the 50d MA preferably testing the 100. Link is holding above its previous horizontal resistance which is now acting as support. In the short term BTC is threatening a daily crossover on its MACD which may push the crypto space up if this comes to fruition, but may not create enough momentum to shatter 50K unless some whales try to engineer a significant relief rally that outweighs the current selling pressure . Personally I rather LINK drop harder to the 100d MA to shake out the weak hands before attempting another leg up.

노트

* Errata * BTC is close to a hourly cross over on the MACD not the daily.