Lumber:Gold Ratio is an unusable indicator?
I appreciate Michael A. Gayed's thesis here, but the more I look deeper (and longer term) at the data, it's really difficult to draw an real signal.
Too many instances where it's not clear which influences which and more likely the market itself (SPX) is influencing lumber and gold independently after the fact of the market move.
When you look closely you can see that the peak of the Lumber:Gold ratio is when both are very low but Gold is lower than Lumber. The conditions of the two are all over the place and it's not something that seems to have truly repeatable conditions.
Conclusion:
I'm open to being wrong here, but I just don't see it as something people should take too seriously especially when gold might be taking off at the same time lumber is. Simply looking for a peak in lumber is probably more valuable here.
Too many instances where it's not clear which influences which and more likely the market itself (SPX) is influencing lumber and gold independently after the fact of the market move.
When you look closely you can see that the peak of the Lumber:Gold ratio is when both are very low but Gold is lower than Lumber. The conditions of the two are all over the place and it's not something that seems to have truly repeatable conditions.
Conclusion:
I'm open to being wrong here, but I just don't see it as something people should take too seriously especially when gold might be taking off at the same time lumber is. Simply looking for a peak in lumber is probably more valuable here.
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.