Princess Gwen here, welcoming you to what may the final high peak of the stock market for a couple of years. Before any market tanks, there's a final hurrah, a last gasp of energy before the crushing sell-off. It's just enough of a rally to convince people that the market might recover, that maybe things really are just fine, and the bull market will continue.
I almost want to be wrong about this, because it's a long way down from this point. Right now, everyone can pretend that things are still OK, that the economy is fine, and that prices will always go up. If anything defines the last peak, it's a sense of irrational exuberance, a hope that what carried it up this far can keep going.
However, there's a bear flag forming right now. This bear flag looks a lot like the one from 2007. As I said before, the 2008 crash actually got started in late 2007. By the time Lehman filed for bankruptcy, the markets were already down 30% from their peak.
Only now are people looking for the reasons for the latest bubble, or the specific pin that popped it. As far as I can tell, the rock and the hard place are tariffs and the Fed rate. One of them alone wasn't enough, but both together will squeeze. No more cheap debt, and tariff walls ensuring that even if you could find funds to make a product, nobody will be able to buy it.
May your castles weather the storm.
I almost want to be wrong about this, because it's a long way down from this point. Right now, everyone can pretend that things are still OK, that the economy is fine, and that prices will always go up. If anything defines the last peak, it's a sense of irrational exuberance, a hope that what carried it up this far can keep going.
However, there's a bear flag forming right now. This bear flag looks a lot like the one from 2007. As I said before, the 2008 crash actually got started in late 2007. By the time Lehman filed for bankruptcy, the markets were already down 30% from their peak.
Only now are people looking for the reasons for the latest bubble, or the specific pin that popped it. As far as I can tell, the rock and the hard place are tariffs and the Fed rate. One of them alone wasn't enough, but both together will squeeze. No more cheap debt, and tariff walls ensuring that even if you could find funds to make a product, nobody will be able to buy it.
May your castles weather the storm.