IEF - Long bonds/yields - How the yield curve inverts

2022년 3월 7일

This is an elliot wave count of IEF which is the long dated bonds and shows a roadmap for how the long bonds yield will drop below the short term bonds causing a yield curve inversion, signalling a recession (which is already well anticipated by now to those paying attention).

When bonds rally in wave 2 it will be violent and fast and will send yields down below the short term yields. i believe we have one more final 5th wave of sub degree before that rally begins and it could be that the decline is in sync with the stock market decline. Once the sentiment finally turns bearish and all of those dip buyers who are overexposed at the most overvalued time in history, then the capital will search for safety and a rotation to long bonds makes sense fundamentally which would explain this wave 2 rally.

After wave 2 completes we will see the evidence of the long term 35+ year interest rate cycle that has been down but is transitioning upwards. When wave 3 down on this chart is underway we will see a consistent increase in rates for many, many years. Wave 2 is where you lock in a 30 year fixed mortgage.

The next phase of the bear market in stocks and cypto will take many by surprise, be cautious.