Estimating fair value for ICP (short, medium and long-term)

4월 7일

Some notes on ICP’s future price potential.

I’ve been trying to get a sense for the price gains we may expect from ICP going forward. Obviously – given the mountain of innovation that the project team has already delivered – the project is greatly undervalued, but what would fair value look like?

I think a good metric to use is Market Dominance, expressed as the percentage of the total crypto market value (or top X crypto stocks) that the fully diluted market cap of ICP contributes. Currently that’s about 0.32%. Looking at historic stats of market dominance of other ‘key’ coins, this is low. TON is sitting around 0.8%, MATIC historically reached up to 1.25%, AVAX up to 1.32%, DOT up to 2.25%, SOL up to 3.6%, ADA up to 4.5%, XRP up to 30%. ETH is currently sitting at ~16%. So, in acknowledgement of the enormous amount of work and development being generated by the team in the ICP ecosystem, it’d be reasonable to expect ICP’s market dominance to significantly increase going forward. Without going crazy, I think 3-5% is achievable in the medium- to long-term.

And that’s in a rapidly growing market… bringing us to the second metric I wanted to talk about: Crypto Total Market Cap. Currently the entire crypto market is valued at ~US$2.66 Trillion. That’s approximately equal to the market cap of Apple (US$2.62 T) – one single company! So where can the crypto total market cap head to from here? Finding a reasonable ballpark may require having a look at the dot com bubble back in 1999, which topped at something like US$13 T, loosing US$5 T in value in two years. So perhaps US$7-8 T is not too silly as a short- to medium term target (considering a 2024 dollar is worth not much more than 50 cents in 1999) and perhaps double or triple that for the long-term as the crypto market gets a proper foothold in the world economy.

So where that leave us ICP hodlers? Well, if we combine the awesome potential of ICP in shaping the crypto world going forward (market dominance) and the growth in the crypto ecosystem as a whole (crypto total market cap), it may not be insane to expect ICP to increase in value by 10x in the relative short term, 25-50x in the medium term and potentially 100+x in the long term, provided the project continues the course and does become a major crypto leader. As depicted in this figure. Hodl those ICP!!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7ujLWwhW/