롱

HIMX Harmonic: Monthly Bat Pattern

업데이트됨

Himax Technologies, Inc. is a semiconductor solution provider dedicated to image display processing technologies. Himax has a moderate quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 5) with good analyst prospects (Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, Himax has a decent dividend pay out @ 1.24 per share/year (18.8%). Therefore, this Himax long play has deep-value at this price-level (6.61).

In this idea, we have a bat-pattern reversing on low-volume and two price targets. I set the stop-loss for 3.33%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I will sell half of my position and set the stop-loss to trail the position by the 'Average True Range'. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I will sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 48.3% and the second target nets 95%. Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 90.45% of their original investment.

Good luck and trade safely!

노트

Trade initiated at 6.68. This trade had more bang for the buck than the other two I posted.

노트

Increasing entry for the first target based upon the Kelly Criterion;
Odds of winning on a bat-pattern: 0.85
Risk-to-Reward: 7.18
Bankroll - 5000

Kelly Criterion Calculation(Adjusted): 0.8291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) :4145.54

노트

Increasing entry for the second target based upon the Kelly Criterion;
Odds of winning on a bat-pattern: 0.85
Risk-to-Reward: 15.32
Bankroll - 5000

Kelly Criterion Calculation(Adjusted): 0.8291
Bet This Much (Adjusted) :4201.04

노트

I am going to buy these shares in options and exercise them before the next dividend record date.

노트

There's an issue with this trade:

I will exit at the bat pattern reversal and Re-enter at the 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 retracements. I actually only expect price to test the 0.382 or 0.5 retracement but not the 0.618 retracement.

노트

There's another issue with the dividend. It appears that they only do one dividend per year.

액티브 트레이드

Levels to watch for reentry: